Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., gives a thumbs-up as he leaves the Senate chamber during the impeachment trial of President Donald Trump at the Capitol Friday, Jan. 31, 2020, in Washington. (AP Photo/Steve Helber)
WASHINGTON 鈥� President Donald Trump鈥檚 impeachment trial heads toward a historic conclusion this week, with senators all-but-certain to acquit him on charges of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress after narrowly rejecting Democratic demands to summon witnesses.
There鈥檚 still plenty of drama to unfold before Wednesday鈥檚 vote.
The vote is expected to cap a months-long investigation spurred by a whistleblower complaint that Trump improperly withheld U.S. military aid from Ukraine in a bid to pressure it to launch investigations into 2020 Democratic rival Joe Biden.
In the Senate, Republicans hold a 53-47 advantage and there鈥檚 nowhere near the two-thirds needed for conviction and removal. On Friday, Republicans blocked consideration of new witnesses and documents, setting up the speedy acquittal vote for the coming week.
It will be a frenetic next few days.
On Monday, House impeachment managers and Trump鈥檚 defense team return to the Senate floor to make closing arguments in the trial, the same day the 2020 presidential election kicks off with the first votes cast in the Iowa caucuses.
On Tuesday, Trump will deliver his State of the Union address.
Will some Democratic senators join Republicans to acquit Trump, allowing him to claim a bipartisan 鈥渆xoneration鈥�? Will Trump gloat or express any regret over the Ukraine matter after key GOP senators during the trial criticized his actions as improper, but ultimately not impeachable? Will Wednesday鈥檚 Senate vote be the final say in the matter?
What to watch as the third impeachment trial in U.S. history heads to a close:
CLOSING ARGUMENTS
The trial resumes at 11 a.m. EST Monday for closing arguments by the two legal teams, with each side getting two hours. After the arguments, the Senate goes back into normal session to allow lawmakers to give speeches about impeachment on the floor from late Monday into Wednesday before they reconvene as the impeachment court at 4 p.m. Wednesday and vote.
With Trump鈥檚 acquittal all but assured, one of the biggest questions may be whether any Democrats join with Republicans to clear him of charges. There is strong political significance.
Three Democratic senators hailing from states where Trump remains popular 鈥� Doug Jones of Alabama, Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona 鈥� remained quiet over the weekend about their intentions.
They were among the 47 Democratic and independent senators who voted unsuccessfully to extend Trump鈥檚 trial by summoning additional witnesses.
If one or more of the Democratic senators vote to acquit Trump 鈥� even voting against one article of impeachment while supporting the other 鈥� it could alienate some Democratic voters, mark their legacies and let Trump spend his reelection campaign asserting that he was cleared by a bipartisan vote.
Manchin indicated to reporters Friday he probably won鈥檛 decide his vote 鈥渦ntil walking in鈥� to the chamber on Wednesday.
Jones has said he will announce his decision prior to Wednesday鈥檚 vote, making sure he gets it 鈥渞ight.鈥� Sinema hasn鈥檛 indicated when she will signal her intentions.
WHAT WILL TRUMP SAY?
Trump gives his State of the Union address on Tuesday night, and with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., perched behind him during his prime-time address, the White House has been coy as to whether Trump will reference the impeachment trial.
Trump 鈥渋s gratified the Senate will set a schedule for his acquittal as quickly as possible. We do not believe that schedule interferes with his ability to deliver a strong, confident State of the Union,鈥� White House aide Eric Ueland said Friday.
A year ago, Trump made no direct reference to his shutdown of government spurred by a dispute with Democrats over border wall funding in the speech he eventually delivered to Congress. He used his address to call for a 鈥渘ew era of cooperation.鈥�
Still, there were plenty of subtle digs at the time, including when Trump warned those gathered against pursuing 鈥渇oolish wars, politics, or ridiculous partisan investigations.鈥�
THE FINAL VOTE
It鈥檚 similarly unclear whether Trump could express regret or remorse over his Ukraine actions, though senators aren鈥檛 holding their breath.
The vote to convict or acquit Trump is scheduled for 4 p.m. EST Wednesday.
Sen. Lamar Alexander of Tennessee was among several Republicans last Friday who voted to block additional witnesses and draw the trial to a close, even though he and others described Trump鈥檚 actions as 鈥渋nappropriate鈥� and 鈥渨rong.鈥� Asked Sunday if he would want to hear Trump express regret, as President Bill Clinton did after his impeachment trial, Alexander said he doesn鈥檛 need to hear it.
鈥淲hat I hope he would do is when he makes his State of the Union address, that he puts this completely behind him, never mentions it, and talks about what he thinks he鈥檚 done for the country and where we鈥檙e headed,鈥� Alexander told NBC鈥檚 鈥淢eet the Press.鈥�
Alexander and other Republicans said that even if Trump committed offenses charged by the House, they are not impeachable 鈥� especially in an election year. They say voters should make that determination in November.
That leaves Trump鈥檚 fate still hanging in the balance.
A NBC 黑料社/Wall Street Journal poll released Sunday found majorities of American voters believe that Trump abused his power and obstructed Congress, but split largely along party lines over whether he should be removed from office.
The poll, conducted January 26-29, found 46% of registered voters believed Trump should be removed from office as a result of the trial, vs. 49% who said he should remain 鈥� basically unchanged from a 48-48 split in December.
NOT OVER YET?
An acquittal for Trump on Wednesday wouldn鈥檛 mean the end of the Ukraine matter in other respects.
Both Pelosi and Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff, the lead impeachment manager, haven鈥檛 ruled out the possibility of compelling former national security adviser John Bolton to testify in the House should Trump be acquitted.
In an unpublished manuscript, Bolton has written that the president asked him during an Oval Office meeting in early May to bolster his effort to get Ukraine to investigate Democrats, according to a person who read the passage and told The Associated Press; Trump denies that. Bolton also wrote that Trump said he wanted to maintain a freeze on military assistance to Ukraine until it aided the political investigations. His book is due out in March. Senators ultimately voted against hearing his testimony.
鈥淭his is in the Senate now,鈥� Pelosi told reporters last week. 鈥淲e鈥檒l see what happens after that.鈥�
Republicans, for their part, aren鈥檛 pledging to fully close the case, either. Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., the chairman of the Judiciary Committee, said he planned to call Joe Biden as part of the congressional oversight process into possible corruption in Ukraine.