A picture shows the Colisseum in Rome on March 28, 2020, during the country鈥檚 lockdown aimed at stopping the spread of the COVID-19 (new coronavirus) pandemic. Image: AFP/Vincenzo Pinto
鈥淭he world will never be the same again,鈥� has been the oft-repeated refrain since the coronavirus brought the global economy to a juddering halt.
For many it has shown how fragile our civilisation is.
The crisis has come as a new movement called 鈥渃ollapsology,鈥� which warns of the possible collapse of our societies as we know them, is gaining ground.
With climate change exposing how unsustainable the economic and social model based on fossil fuels is, they fear orthodox thinking may be speeding us to our doom.
The theory first emerged from France鈥檚 Momentum Institute, and was popularised by a 2015 book, 鈥淗ow Everything Can Collapse鈥�.
Some of its supporters, like former French environment minister Yves Cochet, believe the coronavirus crisis is another sign of impending catastrophe.
Virus domino effect
While the mathematician, who founded France鈥檚 Green party 鈥渟till hesitates鈥� about saying whether the virus will be the catalyst for a domino effect, he quoted the quip that 鈥渋t鈥檚 too early to say if it鈥檚 too late.鈥�
Yet Cochet, whose book 鈥淏efore the Collapse鈥� predicts a meltdown in the next decade, is convinced that the virus will lead to 鈥渁 global economic crisis of greater severity than has been imagined.鈥�
The 74-year-old, who retired to France鈥檚 rural Brittany region so he could live more sustainably, is also worried about an impending 鈥済lobal disaster with lots of victims, both economic and otherwise.鈥�
鈥淲hat is happening now is a symptom of a whole series of weaknesses,鈥� warned Prof. Yves Citton of Paris VIII University.
鈥淚t isn鈥檛 the end of the world but a warning about something that has already been set in motion,鈥� he told AFP. 鈥淎 whole series of collapses that have begun鈥�.
The slide may be slow, said Jean-Marc Jancovici, who heads the Shift Project think-tank which aims to 鈥渇ree economics from carbon.鈥� But 鈥渁 little step has been taken (with the virus) that there is no going back on,鈥� he argued.
Pablo Servigne, the ecologist and agricultural engineer who co-wrote 鈥淗ow Everything Can Collapse,鈥� has a more chilling take.
鈥淭he big lesson of history鈥� and of the Horsemen of the Apocalypse is that pestilence, war and famine tend to follow in each others鈥� wake. We have a pandemic which could lead to another shock 鈥� wars, conflicts and famines,鈥� he warned.
鈥淎nd famines will make us more vulnerable to other pandemics鈥�.鈥�
A chance to change聽
Grim as that prospect may be, influential philosopher and sociologist Bruno Latour said the crisis has give us a chance to imagine alternatives to neo-liberal capitalism.
He warned on his blog that the world had 鈥渢o make sure that, after the virus crisis, things don鈥檛 start again as they were before.
鈥淟et us take advantage of the forced suspension of most activities to take stock of those we would like to see discontinued and those that we would like to see developed.鈥�
The virus had also shown, he wrote in a piece for the AOC online daily, 鈥渢hat it is possible in a few weeks to suspend a global economic system that until now everyone said was impossible to slow or adjust.鈥�
Servigne too can see a bright side, comparing the lockdown to someone 鈥減ulling the alarm signal on a train,鈥� with states now intervening in social and economic policy in ways that have long been taboo.
He was also 鈥渋nspired by the way that nature has reacted as soon as we stopped our craziness鈥� and taken back spaces freed up by our confinement.
The good news from an environmental point of view, said Jancovici, was that 鈥渕oney is no longer a problem鈥� for political leaders. 鈥溾�楴eed 500 billion? We will find it!'鈥� he added.
But the bailout and economic salvage plans that are being set in place should be as non-polluting as possible, Jancovici argued, adding that we had to use this chance to move towards a system not based on carbon.
Nevertheless, he fears that 鈥渢he only plan that will come to mind will be to continue as before to save jobs.鈥�
And it is not just down to governments. If the first thing people do when the lockdown ends is book a flight to get away from it all, Citton said, then we really will be sealing our own fate. JB
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