This foreboding sign for many residents of packed Metro Manila communities will be a familiar sight again as the metropolis goes on ECQ Aug. 6-20. FILE PHOTO/AFP
MANILA, Philippines鈥擨n responding to the COVID-19 pandemic, qualifications matter. You can鈥檛 expect an IT expert to administer coronavirus vaccines as much as you should not expect a nurse to program software to calculate the next day鈥檚 COVID numbers.
In the urgency of pandemic response, square pegs being forced into round holes could be disastrous.
So when some legislators questioned the qualifications, or processes, of independent COVID surveillance group Octa Research, they inadvertently also brought to light the qualifications, or lack of it as critics claim, of the Duterte administration鈥檚 main team in COVID response鈥攖he National Task Force against COVID-19 or NTF.
After the government heeded an Octa recommendation to bring back enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) in Metro Manila, three members of the House of Representatives filed a resolution demanding an investigation of Octa鈥檚 qualifications, research methodologies, partnerships and composition.
Octa started presenting data and projections on COVID in 2020 which are often cited in media reports.
搁贰础顿:听5 solons want OCTA Research capabilities, background probed
Ahead of the inquiry, here are some details regarding the OCTA Research group.
What is OCTA Research?
On the 鈥淎bout Us鈥� section of its website, OCTA Research described itself as a 鈥減olling, research and consulting firm鈥� which offers a wide range of services including:
- Public opinion research;
- Qualitative and quantitative research;
- Policy research and advocacy; and
- Training and capacity building.
The research team also said it provides 鈥渃omprehensive, holistic, accurate, rigorous, and insightful data analysis鈥� to clients including those in the government, private sector and non-government organizations.
It also took pride in its 鈥渜uick turnaround time鈥� in releasing survey and research data results as well as the 鈥渃utting-edge qualitative and quantitative research methodologies, designs and techniques鈥� used by its experts.
The group鈥檚 office can be found in Alpha Village Old Balara, Quezon City.
People behind the group
According to OCTA Research, its 鈥渋ndependent and interdisciplinary research group鈥� is composed of several professors and alumni from different universities, primarily from the University of the Philippines (UP).
Among the list of OCTA Research鈥檚 鈥渇ellows鈥� are:
- Ranjit Singh Rye聽 鈥斅� Assistant professor at UP鈥檚 Department of Political Science.
- Guido David 鈥� Professor, UP Institute of Mathematics.
- Rev. Fr. Nicanor Austriaco, O.P. 鈥� Molecular biologist, professor at the Department of Biology at Providence College in the US, and a visiting professor at the Univerity of Santo Tomas (UST).
- Bernhard Egwolf 鈥斅犅犅燗ssociate professor at the 聽Department of Mathematics and Physics and College of Science of UST.
- Ma. Patricia Agbulos
- Erwin Alampay 鈥� Public administration professor of the UP-National College of Public Administrations and Governance (UP-NCPAG).
- Michael Tee 鈥� UP College of Medicine professor
- Benjamin Vallejo 鈥� Professor, UP Institute of Environmental Science and Meteorology & the Science Society Program (IESM).
- Rodrigo Angelo Ong 鈥� UP lecturer.
OCTA Research also works with Blueprint Campaign Consultancy, a communication campaign and consulting company.
The company鈥檚 CEO, Eero Rosini Brillantes, is also among the OCTA Research fellows.
Previous studies also named several contributors:
- Benjamin Co 鈥� Chief of Infectious Disease at UST Hospital鈥檚 Department of Pediatrics.
- Franco Felizarta 鈥� California-based infectious disease and internal medicine specialist and member of the UP Medical Alumni Society in the US.
- Troy Gepte 鈥� Public health epidemiologist.
- Bryan Albert Lim
Talking about qualifications
While the Octa group has had a degree of influence in the Duterte administration鈥檚 COVID response, the policies that make or break the success of pandemic handling by the government are being enforced by the NTF.
Here are the main members of the NTF, a body created to deal with COVID-19 and the virus that causes it, SARS Cov2, which continues to perplex the best scientific minds in the world:
- Delfin Lorenzana, defense secretary and former major general, as NTF chief. Lorenzana had led the 2nd Scout Ranger Battalion Light Armored Brigade during his military days.
- Eduardo A帽o, interior and local government secretary who is also former military general, as NTF vice chair.
- Carlito Galvez Jr., presidential peace adviser and former armed forces chief, as chief implementer of the NTF.
- Dr. Ted Herbosa as NTF special adviser
- Vince Dizon, BCDA president and CEO, as testing czar and NTF deputy chief implementer
- Leopoldo Vega, health undersecretary and NTF treatment czar
- Restituto Padilla, retired major general, as NTF spokesperson
鈥楶谤辞产濒别尘补迟颈肠鈥櫬烫翱痴滨顿听辫谤辞箩别肠迟颈辞苍蝉?
Infectious disease expert Dr. Edsel Salva帽a on Monday (Aug. 2) called out OCTA Research for its 鈥減roblematic鈥� modeling that is used in projecting COVID cases. Salva帽a said these projections are based on 鈥渋ncomplete鈥� and 鈥渆rroneous鈥� data.
Salva帽a, who is a member of the Department of Health鈥檚 (DOH) Technical Advisory Group, was criticizing OCTA鈥檚 recent calculation of the COVID reproduction number based on cases that were reported in the last two weeks.
鈥淓ven a student of clinical epidemiology will tell you that that is not valid because cases that happened within the last two weeks are subject to error because some get tested later or earlier,鈥� Salva帽a said in an interview with ANC.
鈥淭here are backlogs, so if you are making projections based on data that is incomplete or erroneous, you are going to come out with erroneous projections,鈥� Salva帽a said.
鈥淚 am not saying that they don鈥檛 know what they are doing,鈥� he said.
鈥淭here are mathematicians, political scientists, and doctors there, but their model is problematic because they are using data that is incomplete and inconsistent. There are other things that you have to look at,鈥� he added.
搁贰础顿:听OCTA projection on COVID-19 problematic, using incomplete data, says medical expert
Salva帽a also called the group鈥檚 July 22 report鈥攚hich warned that the country鈥檚 COVID cases may increase to around 8,000 per day鈥攁s 鈥渇ortune-telling.鈥�
搁贰础顿:听OCTA says PH鈥檚 new COVID-19 cases could swell to 8,000 this Thursday
Austriaco, on the other hand, defended the OCTA report by stating that 鈥渁ll modeling is fortune-telling.鈥�
Last July 27, the DOH issued a statement asking independent experts to be more careful in making statements about the COVID-19 pandemic in order to avoid causing panic.
搁贰础顿:听DOH to independent experts: 鈥楤e more careful in making pronouncements鈥�
搁贰础顿:听OCTA to DOH: We鈥檙e also careful in using the term 鈥榮urge鈥�
Peter Julian Cayton, a PhD who teaches statistics at the University of the Philippines, has also questioned OCTA Research鈥檚 statistical methods as well as the lack of publicly available technical notes from the group.
I tried searching for publicly-available technical notes from Octa Research.
Website ()? Nothing.
No Twitter.
FB ()? Last update was July 18, 2020.
So鈥� nothing public unless media reports on it.
Such mystery.
鈥� Peter Cayton, the Stats Guy (@PJACaytonPhD)
Personally curious as to how they solve that.
They are a business, & these reports, like any survey firm such as Pulse Asia & SWS, are simply a means to markret their services.
At least with Pulse Asia they share technical notes, a practice of statisticians worth their salt.
鈥� Peter Cayton, the Stats Guy (@PJACaytonPhD)
In a tweet posted on April 17, Cayton said the method used by OCTA in its report was contentious after formulating a hypothesis on how OCTA came up with its numbers.
So, this is my hypothesis of how OCTA did it.
I never talked to them or communicated with them, pero questionable yung method nila
So, here are the steps, so you can try, too:
1) Make a PivotTable with the following field settings:
鈥� Peter Cayton, the Stats Guy (@PJACaytonPhD)
In a separate tweet published in March, Cayton wrote: 鈥淥CTA鈥檚 Rt estimate is ridiculous. It鈥檚 not backed by reliable predictions.鈥� Rt is the reproduction number of viruses, in this case SARS Cov2.
He again debunked the group鈥檚 methods by聽sharing to the public聽his own聽solution.
I have to say it:
OCTA's Rt estimate is ridiculous. It's not backed by reliable predictions.
Our short-term forecasts support an Rt at 1.3 and bet. 1.1-1.5.
Even supports this Rt level.
鈥� Peter Cayton, the Stats Guy (@PJACaytonPhD)
When Rye said last July 27 that Metro Manila is 鈥渙fficially in a surge,鈥� Cayton said it was 鈥渨eird鈥� that the group was the one declaring a surge when it is 鈥渘ot an official authority.鈥�
搁贰础顿:听OCTA: PH needs 鈥榗ircuit-breaking鈥� lockdowns now amid Delta variant
Precise predictions
Some of the group鈥檚 COVID-19 forecasts, however, later turned out to be accurate.
Graphic by Ed Lustan
One of these is its prediction in early April when the group said the country may reach more than a million COVID cases before the end of that month.
鈥淏efore the end of April, the Philippines is expected to have recorded more than 1,000,000 total COVID-19 cases,鈥� it said.
This was after the group monitored a rapid increase in cases logged in several cities in Metro Manila, including Mandaluyong, Las Pi帽as, and San Juan.
READ: PH鈥檚 COVID-19 cases may pass 1 million before end of April 鈥� OCTA Research
On April 30, the DOH reported that the country鈥檚 total COVID-19 cases reached 1,037,460.
Of those, 73,908 were marked as active cases while there were 8,748 new infections. The total recoveries have reached 946,318 and there were 17,234 deaths caused by the disease as of that date.
搁贰础顿:听Over 8,700 new COVID-19 infections bring total PH cases to 1.037M
During the same month, OCTA Research likewise raised the possibility of a less stringent quarantine status in Metro Manila.
搁贰础顿:听MECQ possible next week if COVID transmission rate declines, says OCTA fellow
On April 11, the government downgraded the quarantine classification of Metro Manila and four of its adjacent provinces to a less stringent modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ) from April 12 to April 30.
In March, OCTA Research had separate forecasts for the possible daily number of cases by the end of that month.
The group first projected that new COVID cases might reach up to 5,000 to 6,000 per day by the end of March.
By March 14, it revised its projection and said that the country might record up to 8,000 new cases daily.
READ: COVID-19 cases in PH may rise to 8,000 daily by end of March 鈥� OCTA member
From March 25 to March 29, data from DOH showed that the reported new infections ranged from over 8,000 to over 10,000 cases.
On March 29, the Philippines breached the 10,000 daily new cases for the first time, bringing the number of infections to 731,894.
Not in UP
In some of its early studies published in 2020, the research group referred to itself as the 鈥淯P-OCTA team.鈥�
鈥淭he UP-OCTA team is an independent and interdisciplinary research group composed primarily of UP faculty members and alumni,鈥� the group said in a July 2020 report.
鈥淭his independent research team also includes contributors from the University of Santo Tomas and Providence College, USA,鈥� it said.
It was followed by a disclaimer saying:
鈥淭he findings and recommendations in the report are those of the authors and do not reflect the official position of the University of the Philippines, University of Santo Tomas, Providence College, or any of its units.鈥�
Some of the research group鈥檚 reports were previously made available on聽UP鈥檚 website.
However, as of Wednesday (Aug. 4), content by OCTA Research聽has already been taken down and can no longer be searched or viewed on the university website.
SCREENSHOT of UP website which had carried research works of Octa.
In a tweet on March 8, Cayton clarified that the research group has no office聽inside the UP campus.
鈥淭hey do not exist in UP鈥檚 organizational structure,鈥� he said.
It echoed his separate tweet posted in October 2020 wherein he explained that OCTA Research is not part of the UP COVID-19 Pandemic Response Team 鈥渘or a UP entity.鈥�
鈥淚t鈥檚 a private consulting firm with agents who are UP professors,鈥� the professor said.
鈥淭hey鈥檙e not UP Octa Research. Just Octa Research. Their successes and shortcomings are theirs, not UP鈥檚,鈥� he added.
As Octa faces grilling from the House, the doubts and suspicions thrown at it serve as a reminder of the lessons in the children鈥檚 tale about a naked emperor who had to know the truth about his undress from someone who shouted it.