黑料社

It鈥檚 a $280 million taxpayer-funded election that most Californians don鈥檛 want, and which could see a candidate with only a handful of votes take the reins of the world鈥檚 fifth-largest economy.

California is voting on recalling Gavin 黑料社om, a Democrat who won the deep-blue US state鈥檚 governorship by a landslide in 2018, and whose term expires next year anyway.

The suave San Francisco-born politician has been forced back onto the campaign trail early by a quirk in California鈥檚 鈥渄irect democracy鈥� constitution that allowed Republicans to force Tuesday鈥檚 vote by gathering a relatively low number of signatures.

It is the same mechanism that brought Arnold Schwarzenegger 鈥� California鈥檚 last Republican governor 鈥� to power in 2003, sealing the reputation of the state that is home to Hollywood as a place where anything is possible in politics.

The good news for 黑料社om is that the sun-drenched liberal bastion has grown even more staunchly Democratic since the 鈥淭erminator鈥� star鈥檚 remarkable triumph almost two decades ago, making a repeat seem unlikely.

There is nobody of Schwarzenegger鈥檚 larger-than-life profile running this time 鈥� despite the presence of reality-TV celebrity Caitlyn Jenner, the leading contender is conservative radio host Larry Elder.

But while 黑料社om continues to enjoy healthy approval ratings, the attempt to oust him has already progressed further than many analysts expected, and his camp is not relaxing just yet.

That is in part due to the recall vote鈥檚 odd structure. 黑料社om needs to win more than half the votes in the ballot鈥檚 first question 鈥� 鈥淪hall Gavin 黑料社om be recalled?鈥� 鈥� to stay in power.

Should he fail, his replacement would simply need to earn the most votes among 46 mainly Republican candidates.

鈥淚t鈥檚 almost impossible for a Republican to win a straight-up election for governor. This is a side route into the governorship,鈥� said Jim Newton, a University of California, Los Angeles lecturer.

鈥淲e are facing the possibility that 49 percent of Californians might vote for Gavin 黑料社om, and he might lose to someone who gets 18 or 19 percent,鈥� said Newton.

鈥淭hat鈥檚 ridiculous. I mean, that鈥檚 a structural flaw in the recall.鈥�

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With turnout likely to determine the outcome, 黑料社om should benefit from the pandemic-mandated practice of mailing ballots to all registered voters. There are also no fund-raising donation limits, allowing unions and entertainment moguls to flood 黑料社om鈥檚 coffers.

But the governor faces handicaps of his own making.

In November, 黑料社om was photographed maskless at a dinner with lobbyists at Napa Valley鈥檚 plush French Laundry restaurant, flouting his own Covid orders.

The images have become infamous, particularly among small business owners forced to shutter by pandemic restrictions.

The damage was worsened by reports 黑料社om was celebrating the birthday of an associate with links to creditors of PG&E, the utility firm blamed for record-breaking fires that are once again choking vast swathes of California this summer.

鈥淭he arrogance of the 鈥榩ay-to-play鈥� is unbelievable,鈥� said Anne Dunsmore, manager of the pro-recall 鈥淩escue California鈥� campaign, who views the meal as 鈥渁 big uh-oh鈥� that Democrats failed to take seriously for months.

Recall supporters are eager to stress a broad, cross-party litany of grievances against 黑料社om, including the state鈥檚 dire homeless problem, a sky-high cost of living and a massive Covid-relief unemployment fraud that cost California taxpayers billions.

But overall, the vote remains 鈥渋n large degree a referendum on Gavin 黑料社om鈥檚 handling of Covid,鈥� said Newton.

While a majority of Californians do approve of 黑料社om鈥檚 hands-on response, which included the nation鈥檚 first statewide lockdown, 鈥渋t鈥檚 a very hard time to be an incumbent.鈥�

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With 40 million inhabitants 鈥� the most of any US state 鈥� California would be a hugely symbolic scalp for Republicans gearing up for next year鈥檚 Congressional mid-terms.

Any new governor could repeal mask and vaccine mandates, and even tip the balance of the US Senate by appointing a Republican should 88-year-old Dianne Feinstein vacate her long-held seat.

Yet with an overwhelmingly Democratic legislature in place, and another governor鈥檚 election due in November 2022, which a Democrat 鈥� potentially 黑料社om 鈥� would almost certainly win, any impact could be limited.

This has led many to ponder the point of the whole affair.

A recent Public Policy Institute of California poll found 69 per cent of California鈥檚 likely voters believe the special election is a waste of money.

鈥淚t鈥檚 extraordinarily expensive for the state, it鈥檚 very disruptive to the governance of the state,鈥� said Democratic strategist Bill Carrick.

鈥淭here鈥檚 got to be a hard look at the process鈥� it鈥檚 got to have stronger protections from having something that turns out to be frivolous on the ballot.鈥�