A staff member in a protective suit instructs people who are lining up for a throat swab test at a temporary COVID-19 testing center as the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continues in Beijing, China, January 26, 2022. REUTERS/Thomas Peter
SHANGHAI 鈥� China鈥檚 鈥渮ero-COVID鈥� stance has put it at odds with the rest of the world and is exacting a mounting economic toll, but an exit strategy remains elusive as authorities worry about the ability of the healthcare system to cope and adapt to new strains.
Chinese medical experts believed last year that higher vaccination rates would eventually allow China to relax tough rules on movement and testing as infection rates slow elsewhere.
The emergence of the highly transmissible Omicron variant dashed those hopes.
While some analysts have branded China鈥檚 approach as 鈥渦nsustainable,鈥� many local health experts 鈥� and some from overseas 鈥� say the country has no choice but to continue given its less developed health system.
Some even argue China鈥檚 economy could even emerge stronger than ever if it keeps Omicron at bay.
鈥淔or a large country with a population of 1.4 billion, it must be said that the cost effectiveness of our country鈥檚 prevention and control has been extremely high,鈥� said Liang Wannian, head of the expert epidemic prevention group at China鈥檚 National Health Commission, at a Saturday briefing.
Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, called on China last week to 鈥渞eassess鈥� its approach, saying it had now become a 鈥渂urden鈥� on both the Chinese and global economies.
But China is concerned the cost of lowering its defenses could prove even higher, especially with a healthcare system that has lagged its broader development.
鈥淲ith a large population and high density the government is rightly concerned about impacts for the spread of the virus,鈥� said Jaya Dantas, professor of international health at the Curtin School of Population Health in Perth, Australia.
China had 4.7 million registered nurses at the end of 2020, or 3.35 per 1,000 people, official data showed. The United States has around 3 million 鈥� around 9 per 1,000.
China is also wary of the risk of new variants, especially as it refuses to import foreign vaccines. Studies suggest China鈥檚 vaccines are less effective against Omicron and it has not yet rolled out its own mRNA version.
Wu Zunyou, chief epidemiologist at the Chinese Center For Disease Control and Prevention, warned the 鈥渋nsidious鈥� Omicron could still lead to a rise in the absolute number of deaths even if it was proven to be less deadly, and China must remain patient.
鈥淐hina鈥檚 medical capacity and standards are not as good as Britain or the United States, but the results of China鈥檚 coronavirus prevention and control are far, far superior,鈥� he said in a weekend interview with the Beijing 黑料社.
鈥楶remature optimism鈥�
China has stepped up its health warnings, urging citizens to ignore claims that Omicron is no more serious than the 鈥榝lu and to stay vigilant.
On Wednesday, the Global Times, published by the official People鈥檚 Daily, also lashed out at overseas media for 鈥渕ocking鈥� China鈥檚 policies, saying they saved lives.
Foreign criticism was 鈥渂ased on unfounded or premature optimism regarding the end of the pandemic鈥�, it added.
Experts in China and overseas have also cast doubt on the hope that Omicron represents the final stage of the pandemic.
鈥淪ARS-CoV-2 will not magically turn into a malaria-like endemic infection where levels stay constant for long periods,鈥� said Raina MacIntyre, head of the Biosecurity Research Program at the University of New South Wales鈥� Kirby Institute.
鈥淚t will keep causing epidemic waves, driven by waning vaccine immunity, new variants that escape vaccine protection, unvaccinated pockets, births and migration,鈥� she told Reuters.
End-game
China鈥檚 economy is expected to slow as a result of COVID related supply disruptions, while lockdowns to douse domestic outbreaks weigh on travel and consumption.
鈥榮 鈥渮ero-COVID鈥� approach has put the Chinese-controlled city out of step with other global finance centers and is battering its economy.
Still, China鈥檚 economy has remained resilient, with GDP growth at 8.1% last year, far exceeding expectations.
MacIntyre of the Kirby Institute said it wasn鈥檛 a 鈥渂inary choice鈥� between opening up and remaining isolated, adding there was 鈥渘o need to surrender to the virus, as Australia is doing at the moment.鈥�
China could still emerge from the crisis in the strongest position, especially if COVID leads to widespread cognitive impairment, organ damage and other long-term conditions in other countries, she said.
鈥淚f China keeps the virus largely under control, their population will be fit and healthy into the future, while the United States and Europe will be groaning under an unprecedented burden of chronic disease.鈥�