WASHINGTON 鈥 If you think you鈥檝e seen this movie before, it鈥檚 because you have 鈥 except the second time will be even more nerve-racking. Yes, world: get ready for Biden vs Trump 2.
That鈥檚 a potential takeaway from the scandal embroiling Donald Trump over his alleged hoarding of secret government documents almost two years after losing reelection to Joe Biden.
If Trump was previously considered likely to announce a 2024 comeback bid, one school of thought is that the FBI search of his Florida estate, allowing Trump to depict himself as a martyr, makes that decision almost certain.
鈥淚 believed he was gonna run before 鈥 I鈥檓 stronger in my belief now,鈥 Republican Senator Lindsey Graham told Fox 黑料社.
If Trump does run, goes the theory, then Biden surely does, too. Despite being the oldest man ever in the job at 79, Biden sees it as his historic mission to rid the United States of Trump.
And so, after surviving the tense, at times nightmarish 2020 election, Americans may do it all over again.
This time it would be in reverse 鈥 the incumbent a by-then 81-year-old Biden and the challenger a 78-year-old Trump.
Given Trump鈥檚 constant lies that he won the 2020 election and searing evidence of his role in stoking the violent January 6 assault on Congress, a rematch would be ugly.
鈥淚f you think Trump鈥檚 2016 and 2020 campaigns were nasty, you ain鈥檛 seen nothing,鈥 said American University history professor Allan Lichtman, a leading authority on US presidential elections.
Good for both sides?
To practitioners of the dark political arts, the FBI raid on Trump鈥檚 Mar-a-Lago resort is a game-changing moment that, ironically, could benefit either side.
For Biden the logic is obvious.
The biggest name in the Republican Party is on the ropes, facing not only the FBI probe, but legal cases linked to allegations of everything from subverting the election, to fraud and rape.
That鈥檚 embarrassing for Republicans and energizing for Biden鈥檚 Democrats, who increasingly dream of avoiding a predicted wipe-out, or even scoring their own surprise victory, in November midterm elections to decide control of Congress.
鈥淭rump is like a steroid boost for Democrats,鈥 Jim Kessler, at the Democratic think tank Third Way, told The Hill.
As the Republican-supporting Wall Street Journal editorial board says: Republicans 鈥渟hould be making the midterms a referendum on Mr Biden鈥檚 first two years. Democrats would prefer to talk until November 鈥 really, until the end of time 鈥 about Mr Trump.鈥
Yet Trump will also see benefits.
Once again he鈥檚 dominating the national psyche, while his fervent base has a new conspiracy theory to feed off, lighting up right-wing social media with calls to arms and threats of Civil War 2.0.
鈥淒onald Trump has more than $100 million in his political war chest. But he has something even more valuable 鈥 an active FBI investigation against him,鈥 wrote Richard Lowry, editor of the conservative magazine National Review.
鈥淚t has put him front-and-center again. It has made it easy for him to portray himself as an embattled victim.鈥
Trump鈥檚 choice, Biden鈥檚 strategy
In a Republican primary, Trump鈥檚 political footprint would likely crush the strongest of rivals.
鈥淚f Trump wants it at this point, I don鈥檛 see how it鈥檚 not his,鈥 Republican political strategist John Thomas told Politico. 鈥淚t鈥檒l be a coronation.鈥
And Trump getting in would also essentially trigger Biden鈥檚 decision to follow 鈥 scotching any thoughts he may privately have of stepping aside for a younger figure before 2024.
鈥淭rump is the critical first mover in whether or not there is a rematch,鈥 said Lara Brown, director of the Graduate School of Political Management at George Washington University.
鈥淚 do believe that President Biden is waiting to see if Trump declares and if he does, I believe he will also declare very quickly after.鈥
Voters may not want either man.
A July poll by 黑料社Nation/Decision Desk HQ found 60 percent said Biden shouldn鈥檛 run in 2024 and 57 percent said the same of Trump.
Biden backs himself against Trump. 鈥淚n the next election, I鈥檇 be very fortunate if I had that same man running against me,鈥 Biden said in March.
While it鈥檚 been a difficult year for Biden, the last couple months have seen him turn his presidency around, racking up remarkable legislative and policy successes.
And although Biden remains deeply unpopular, with approval ratings around 40 percent, the improved record in the White House, and widespread anger at the Supreme Court鈥檚 overturning of national abortion rights, leave advisors optimistic.
So while Republicans get lost in Trump dramas, Democrats will focus on kitchen table issues, an aide said.
鈥淭his is about meeting people where they live and the things that matter most in their lives,鈥 the aide said, speaking on condition of anonymity. 鈥淭here鈥檒l be a lot of things that will be in the news, but we are going to speak to people in their lives.鈥
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