A supporter of Brazil鈥檚 President Jair Bolsonaro reacts while gathering with fellow supporters outside Bolsonaro鈥檚 home, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil October 2, 2022. REUTERS/Lucas Landau
RIO DE JANEIRO 鈥� Brazil鈥檚 presidential election is headed for a run-off vote, electoral authorities said on Sunday, after President Jair Bolsonaro鈥檚 surprising strength in a first-round vote spoiled rival Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva鈥檚 hopes of winning outright.
With 95% of electronic votes counted, Lula was ahead with 47.6% of votes versus 43.9% for Bolsonaro, the national electoral authority reported. As neither got a majority of support, the race will go to a second-round vote on October 30.
Several opinion surveys had shown Lula leading Bolsonaro by 10-15 percentage points ahead of Sunday鈥檚 vote. The much tighter result dashed expectations of a quick resolution to a deeply polarized election in the world鈥檚 fourth-largest democracy.
Bolsonaro had questioned polls that showed him losing to Lula in the first round, saying they did not capture enthusiasm he saw on the campaign trail. He has also attacked the integrity of Brazil鈥檚 electronic voting system without evidence, and suggested he might not concede if he lost.
Political observers had said a wide margin of victory for Lula could sap Bolsonaro of support to challenge the electoral results. But Sunday鈥檚 vote, extending a tense and violent election by another four weeks, revitalized his campaign.
鈥淭he extreme right is very strong across Brazil,鈥� said Carlos Melo, a political scientist at the Insper business school. 鈥淟ula鈥檚 second-round victory is now less likely. Bolsonaro will arrive with a lot of strength for re-election.鈥�
People, amid a crowd of supporters of presidential candidate Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, gesture at a samba in Largo da Prainha on the day of the presidential election, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil October 2, 2022. REUTERS/Ricardo Moraes
Some polls had suggested Lula could win over 50% of valid votes, allowing him to avoid the run-off against his fierce rival. But as results trickled in, that looked unlikely.
Outside Bolsonaro鈥檚 family home in Rio de Janeiro鈥檚 Barra da Tijuca neighborhood, the scene of jubilant celebrations when Bolsonaro was elected in 2018, the mood was increasingly upbeat.
Maria Lourdes de Noronha, 63, said only fraud could prevent a Bolsonaro victory, adding that 鈥渨e will not accept it鈥� if he loses. 鈥淭he polls in our country, the media, and journalists, are liars, rascals, shameless,鈥� she said.
Although he ended his 2003-2010 government with record popularity, Lula is now loathed by many Brazilians after he was convicted of accepting bribes and jailed during the last election. His conviction was later overturned by the Supreme Court, allowing him to face his rival Bolsonaro this year, along with nine other candidates from an array of smaller parties.
A career lawmaker turned self-styled outsider, Bolsonaro rode a backlash against Lula鈥檚 Workers Party to victory in 2018, uniting strands of Brazil鈥檚 right, from evangelical Christians to farming interests and pro-gun advocates.
He has dismantled environmental and indigenous protections to the delight of commercial farmers and wildcat miners, while pushing an anti-gay and anti-abortion agenda.
His popularity has suffered since the coronavirus pandemic, which he dismissed as a 鈥渓ittle flu.鈥� Corruption scandals also forced ministers out of his government and focused a harsh spotlight on his lawmaker sons.
Yet Sunday鈥檚 vote shows his support is far from collapsing.
Lula鈥檚 proposals for Brazil have been light on details, but he promises to improve the fortunes of Brazil鈥檚 poor and working classes, as he did as president from 2003-2010, when he lifted millions out of poverty and burnished Brazil鈥檚 global influence.
While in power, Lula鈥檚 approval rating soared as he expanded Brazil鈥檚 social safety net amid a commodity-driven economic boom. But in the years after he left office, the economy collapsed, his hand-picked successor was impeached and many of his associates went to prison.
Lula himself spent 19 months in jail for bribery convictions that were thrown out by the Supreme Court last year.