黑料社

MANILA, Philippines鈥擯eople, in many cases, won鈥檛 care about climate change until its impact hits them in the face, like what happened to millions of Filipinos in several Visayas provinces when Super Typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan) struck.

Back in 2013, Yolanda, which was then the strongest typhoon to ever make landfall, carried more than 300 kph winds, killed 6,340, left 1,800 missing, and displaced 14 million people in 44 provinces.

As stated by the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council, the typhoon left P95.4 billion in damage as it wrecked 1.1 million houses and 33 million coconut palms, which were considered as the main livelihood in the provinces it hit.

Because of its strength that inflicted 鈥渓ingering effects鈥� on the economy, poverty incidence spiked to 25.8 percent in the first six months of 2014, the National Economic and Development Authority (Neda) had said.

Take the case of Eastern Visayas, which was the worst hit by Yolanda. Back in 2012, its poverty incidence rate was 45.2 percent, but in 2014, months after the destruction of the typhoon, poverty grew to 54.9 percent.

Neda had said the poverty incidence rate in the region indicated that out of the 4.1 million people living in the provinces of Leyte, Southern Leyte, Samar, Easter Samar, Northern Samar and Biliran then, over 2 million were already poor.

Nine years since Yolanda, the World Bank stressed that climate change, which was blamed for the typhoon鈥檚 overkill, could once again inflict a heavy toll on the poorest Filipinos.

This is why climate change has to be addressed now, it said.

Economic consequencesPeople, in many cases, won鈥檛 care about climate change until its impact hits them in the face, like what happened to millions of Filipinos in several Visayas provinces when Super Typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan) struck.

This week, World Bank鈥檚 lead economist Souleymane Coulibaly said climate change, which manifests itself through rising temperatures, increasing sea levels, more intense droughts and stronger typhoons, will significantly threaten the economy.

As the Philippines Country Climate Development Report was launched, Coulibaly said without intervention from the government and private sector, climate change will likely slash gross domestic product (GDP) by 13.6 percent by 2040.

鈥淲e have estimated that the average loss of GDP by 2030 is at least 3.2 percent rising to at least 5.7 percent by 2040. However, the impact could be much worse reaching 7.6 percent of GDP by 2030 and 13.6 percent by 2040.鈥�

鈥淒amages from climate change are a threat to the Philippine economy. It is likely to reduce GDP substantially, but the range of possible outcomes is wide,鈥� said Coulibaly, who is the program leader of World Bank鈥檚 Equitable Growth and Finance Institution.

He said the consequences of climate change are expected to negatively impact economic growth as it is seen to erode natural and physical capital, lessen work productivity, weaken financial stability, and alter domestic and external competitiveness.

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As stressed by Coulibaly, 鈥渕odeling shows that if no measure is taken to address climate change by 2040, the poverty rate will increase by nearly a percentage point, economic insecurity by frequent 3 points and inequality by 0.3 points.鈥�

鈥淲ithout action, climate change will impose substantial economic and human costs, affecting the poorest households the most,鈥� said Ndiam茅 Diop, World Bank country director for the Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand and Brunei.

This, as 鈥渢emperatures in the Philippines will continue to rise by the end of the 21st century,鈥� while 鈥渞ainfall patterns will change and intensify, and extreme weather will become more frequent.鈥�

Climate change risks

Based on the World Risk Report 2022 by Germany-based B眉ndnis Entwicklung Hilft and the Institute for International Law of Peace and Armed Conflict at Ruhr University Bochum, the Philippines is the world鈥檚 most disaster-prone country.

READ: PH most disaster-prone country in the world鈥攕tudy

With an index score of 46.82, it was stressed that the Philippines鈥� high risk, exposure, and vulnerability to disasters were the reasons it is now considered as the country most susceptible to disasters.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said while typhoons hitting the country are becoming fewer, those that do make landfall are becoming stronger.

Every year, an average of 20 typhoons enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility, with about eight or nine making landfall.

鈥淏ased on our data, we have seen that the frequency of typhoons is decreasing a bit and we have seen that for those greater than 170 kilometers per hour, there is a slight change, there is a slight increase,鈥� it said.

Likewise, Pagasa said it was expecting the country鈥檚 temperature to rise by four degrees by the end of the 21st century, while the intensity of typhoons that make landfall will continue to increase.

As scientists had stressed, warmer temperatures, which melt ice caps and cause oceans to expand, was the reason that sea levels are rising.

Here in the Philippines, Pagasa climate scientist Dr. Marcelino Villafuerte said the sea level in the Philippine Sea had risen by about 12 centimeters, or about 5 inches, over the past two decades.

Pagasa said the sea level in the Philippines is rising three times faster than the world average. With 70 percent of its municipalities facing large bodies of water, including the Pacific Ocean, the rise could spell a 鈥渂ig impact鈥� on millions.

READ: PH sea level rising 3 times faster than world average, says expert

Millions more will starve

Climate change is complex, but if people will look at how it impacts their lives, it becomes easy to understand.

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Pagasa said 鈥渃limate change is one of the most fundamental challenges ever to confront humanity. Its adverse impacts are already being seen and may intensify exponentially over time if nothing is done to reduce further emissions of greenhouse gases.鈥�

Take the case of rising temperatures. It said a warmer world will certainly impact systems and sectors although, magnitude of impacts will depend on considerations such as sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity to climate risks.

However, in most cases, 鈥渓ikely impacts will be adverse.鈥�

鈥淎griculture could be severely affected by temperature changes coupled with changes in rain regimes and patterns,鈥� it said.

Pagasa stressed that 鈥渋n areas/regions where rainfall is projected to decrease, there will be water stress, which in turn, will most likely cascade into more adverse impacts, particularly on forestry, agriculture and livelihood, health, and human settlement.鈥�

Based on a study by the International Food Policy Research Institute, climate change is expected to put 2 million more people at risk of hunger by 2050 and cost about P145 billion yearly.

This, as total crop production is estimated to be 1.7 percent lower than it would without climate change, which is particularly troublesome in light of the Philippines鈥� growing population.

Corn production, meanwhile, is projected to be 13 percent lower in 2050 than it would be without climate change and rice 3.2 percent lower.

As climate change affects production, it also affects prices. Substantial increases are projected by 2050 for cereals (24 percent), fruits and vegetables (13 percent), and meat (4 percent) compared with their projected prices without climate change.

Take action now

Stefano Pagiolo, senior environment economist of the World Bank, said climate change poses risks for development in the Philippines: 鈥淭herefore, policy and action would impose substantial economic and human costs, especially for the poor.鈥�

鈥淭he Philippines has many options to address climate change, which could significantly reduce its impact. These options are feasible, and that cost is modest. The private sector must play a leading role in the climate action, so it鈥檚 important that the right incentives are in place,鈥� he explained.

Last month, addressing the 77th session of the United Nations General Assembly, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. called on all nations to take their share of responsibility in fighting the effects of climate change.

He said in his statement at the UN high-level debate that the effects of climate change, which he described as the 鈥済reatest threat鈥� affecting all countries and people, were 鈥渦neven and reflect a historical injustice.鈥�

鈥淭hose who are least responsible suffer the most. This injustice must be corrected, and those who need to do more must act now,鈥� he said. 鈥淲e accept our share of responsibility and will continue to do our part to avert this collective disaster.鈥�

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However, the group Greenpeace Philippines stressed that Marcos鈥� words should be reflected in actual policies.

鈥淎t present, we hear all this talk about climate justice, climate action, protecting biodiversity, ensuring food security, and upholding justice and human rights, but, in reality, most developments on the ground and the administration鈥檚 policy direction are leading us away from these purported aspirations.鈥�

鈥淲e are calling on Mr. Marcos Jr. to actualize the claims in his speech, and heed the calls of Filipino communities for concrete action on climate and rights,鈥� it said.

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