Russian President Vladimir Putin delivers a speech during the 19th Annual Meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club in Moscow, Russia, on October 27, 2022. Sputnik/Mikhail Metzel/Pool via REUTERS A
MOSCOW 鈥� The last time Russian President Vladimir Putin found himself isolated at a G20 summit was in 2014, soon after he seized Crimea 鈥� and he was so shunned that he left early.
Eight years later, after launching a full-scale offensive in Ukraine in February and threatening the West with nuclear weapons, the 70-year-old Russian leader chose to skip this week鈥檚 G20 meeting on the tropical island of Bali altogether.
Observers say the Kremlin is seeking to shield the Russian leader from a storm of condemnation in Indonesia but Putin鈥檚 no-show risks further isolating a country already battered by unprecedented Western sanctions.
Alexei Malashenko, chief researcher at the Dialogue of Civilizations Institute, said Putin did not want to be publicly humiliated once again, recalling that at the Brisbane summit in 2014 Putin was placed at the far flank of the traditional family photo.
鈥淎t the summit, you have to talk to people and be photographed,鈥� said Malashenko.
鈥淎nd who is he going to talk to and how exactly will he be photographed?鈥�
The G20 gathering will inevitably be overshadowed by Moscow鈥檚 offensive in Ukraine, which has shocked global energy markets and aggravated food shortages.
Fyodor Lukyanov, a foreign policy expert close to the Kremlin, indicated that Putin was not ready to budge over Ukraine.
鈥淗is position is well known, it will not change. The other side鈥檚 position is also well known,鈥� said Lukyanov, editor of the聽Russia聽in Global Affairs journal. 鈥淲hat鈥檚 the point of going?鈥�
The Kremlin blamed Putin鈥檚 absence on scheduling conflicts, without specifying what prompted the Russian leader to skip one of the highest-profile global summits.
鈥楴othing to say鈥�
The Kremlin said that Putin would not even address the summit by video link.
By comparison, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who will attend the gathering virtually, is expected to lobby global leaders for a stronger response to Russia鈥檚 assault.
The Russian delegation will be headed by Moscow鈥檚 top diplomat Sergei Lavrov.
The pugilistic foreign minister walked out of a G20 meeting in Bali in July after Russia鈥檚 offensive in Ukraine was condemned, and he can expect another icy reception.
Political analyst Konstantin Kalachev said Putin鈥檚 refusal to travel to Bali reflected 鈥渁 sense of a dead end鈥� over Ukraine.
鈥淗e鈥檚 got nothing to say,鈥� Kalachev said. 鈥淗e has no proposal on Ukraine that could satisfy both sides.鈥�
Despite mobilizing hundreds of thousands of reservists in September, the Russian armed forces have suffered setback after setback in Ukraine.
In September, the Russian army had to withdraw from the northeastern region of Kharkiv.
On Friday, Russia announced it was pulling its forces from the strategic southern port city of Kherson in a new humiliation for the Kremlin. Peace talks have been put on ice.
鈥楢nti-Western coalition鈥�
Shunned by most Western leaders, Putin seeks to deepen ties with countries that have traditionally enjoyed good ties with Moscow or those that also rail against the dominance of the United States in global affairs.
鈥淚n Putin鈥檚 view, his refusal to go to the G20 summit will not prevent Russia from building relations with neutral states,鈥� said Tatiana Stanovaya, the founder of R.Politik, a political analysis firm.
鈥淧utin believes that Russia鈥檚 anti-American line is finding a lot of support.鈥�
The Kremlin insists that Russia is far from isolated, and Stanovaya pointed out that Putin has been seeking allies in Africa, Asia and the Middle East.
鈥淗e is trying to build an anti-Western coalition,鈥� she said.
Many political observers are skeptical that the Kremlin chief will succeed. After Putin sent troops to Ukraine on February 24 no major nation has rallied behind Russia, including China.
Russia鈥檚 assault on Ukraine also spooked Moscow鈥檚 neighbors in Central Asia and prompted countries such as Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to look for alliances elsewhere.
Kalachev said Russia鈥檚 confrontation with the West had pushed it to the margins of world politics and decision-making on pressing issues such as climate change.
鈥淚t is not a pariah country, like North Korea,鈥� he said, 鈥渂ut Russia is no longer part of the world agenda that is not related to the topic of World War III.鈥�
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