黑料社

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates 鈥� A standoff between countries that want a dramatic phase-out of planet-warming fossil fuels and those that don鈥檛 push a critical climate summit officially into overtime on Tuesday. But organizers were about to float another try at compromise.

The United Nations-led summit known as COP28 was supposed to end Tuesday afternoon after nearly two weeks of speeches, demonstrations, and negotiations. But the climate talks almost always run long, and negotiators were still meeting late Tuesday as workers nearby dismantled signs and set up scaffolding in preparation for the venue鈥檚 next event.

Monday鈥檚 release of a draft agreement angered countries that insisted on a commitment to the rapid phase-out of coal, oil, and gas.

Another compromise version of the cornerstone document, the global stocktake, was prepped Tuesday evening, along with potential agreements about adaptation and financial aid to poor nations. Delegates, analysts, and activists hadn鈥檛 yet had a chance to see just what鈥檚 in the latest proposal from the presidency run by the host nation, the United Arab Emirates, but further negotiations were being set up after they got a look.

Meetings between delegates and the presidency were ongoing on Tuesday evening, and some were cautiously optimistic.

鈥淚 feel much more encouraged than yesterday,鈥� said Canadian environment minister Steven Guilbeault. 鈥淚 think it will be probably some hours until a new text and I suspect it will be the last,鈥� he said around 9 p.m. Tuesday evening.

鈥淭here鈥檚 improvements in some areas from yesterday鈥檚 landings, but as I see it, it鈥檚 the whole package we want to be able to respond to,鈥� said Samoa鈥檚 Cedric Schuster.

Monday鈥檚 criticized draft called for countries to reduce 鈥渃onsumption and production of fossil fuels, in a just, orderly and equitable manner鈥� instead of a phase-out.

Majid al-Suwaidi, COP28 Director-General, said the draft was meant for countries to start talking and presenting their deal-killers.

鈥淭he text we released was a starting point for discussions,鈥� he said at a news conference midday on Tuesday. 鈥淲hen we released it, we knew opinions were polarized, but what we didn鈥檛 know was where each country鈥檚 red lines were.鈥�

鈥淲e spent last night talking, taking in that feedback, and that has put us in a position to draft a new text,鈥� he said.

Al-Suwaidi gave conflicting comments about the future of the fossil fuel phase-out language, which at one point he said 鈥渄oesn鈥檛 work.鈥�

鈥淚t鈥檚 important that we have the right language when it comes to fossil fuels. It鈥檚 important that we think about how we get that balance. There are those who want phased out. There are those who want phased down,鈥� al-Suwaidi said. 鈥淭he point is to get a consensus.鈥�

On one side are countries such as Saudi Arabia that won鈥檛 accept phase-out language, while European and Latin American countries and small island nations say it is unacceptable to leave those words out. Countries wanting phase-out are in a tough position because they may have to accept either a weak deal or no deal, neither of which is good for them, said Alden Meyer, a veteran climate negotiations observer for European think-tank E3G.

But Meyer thinks the blowback from phase-out supporters may be the start of strengthening a proposed deal, leaving Saudi Arabia and a few other Gulf states 鈥渁s the last ones standing in the way of a more ambitious deal. We鈥檙e not there yet. There鈥檚 more work to be done.鈥�

The key is finding language that won鈥檛 make someone block a deal because a final agreement has to be by consensus. But consensus isn鈥檛 always unanimity, with past climate summits pushing through an agreement over the objections of a nation or two, climate negotiations historian Joanna Depledge of Cambridge University said.

鈥淥ver-ruling is not impossible, just politically very, very risky,鈥� she said.

Jean Su from the Center of Biological Diversity said, 鈥渁 feasible success is some type of language that signals a phase out of fossil fuels and it will not have any abatement in it, any carbon capture and storage, something that is clean and fair.鈥�

She said rich countries could leverage financial commitments to developing nations to help pass fossil fuel language in a final deal.

The global stocktake aims to help nations align their national climate plans with the Paris agreement goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) to stave off the worst effects of climate change. Earth is on its way to smashing the record for the hottest year, endangering human health and leading to more costly and deadly extreme weather.

In the 21-page document issued Monday, the words oil and natural gas did not appear, and the word coal appeared twice. It also had a single mention of carbon capture, a technology touted by some to reduce emissions, although it鈥檚 untested at scale.

Rachel Cleetus of the Union of Concerned Scientists urged negotiators to keep working.

鈥淧lease do not shut down this COP before we get the job done,鈥� she said.