黑料社

MANILA, Philippines 鈥� One of the biggest lessons that Vietnam has learned about China鈥檚 expansionism in the South China Sea is indisputable 鈥� the Asian behemoth does not discriminate in its campaign of conquest at sea.

The aggression that Filipinos confront with regularity鈥攁lmost weekly鈥攊n the West Philippine Sea is not an 鈥渆xclusive experience鈥� of the Philippines.

This was stressed by geopolitical analyst Don McLain Gill, who pointed out the shift in Vietnam鈥檚 perception of China, which continues with its 鈥渁ctive escalation鈥� in most of the South China Sea, outside of its exclusive economic zone (EEZ).

Last Oct. 31, Vietnam protested China鈥檚 detention of its fishermen and vessels in the Paracel Islands, where China, Vietnam, and Taiwan have overlapping claims.

Vietnam demanded that China 鈥渞elease all illegally captured fishermen and vessels鈥� who were believed to have been detained since June.

China instead asserted that the Paracel Islands, which it calls Xisha Qundao, is China鈥檚 鈥渋nherent territory.鈥�

鈥淐hina hopes Vietnam will earnestly raise the awareness of its fishermen and make sure they will not engage in illegal activities in waters under China鈥檚 jurisdiction,鈥� said Lin Jian, spokesperson of China鈥檚 Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

鈥楳ore vocal鈥�

Gill told 黑料社 that this was not the first case of China鈥檚 harassment of Vietnamese fishermen, but 鈥渨hat we could see鈥� in the past few months or years is that Vietnam has become 鈥渕ore vocal in criticizing China鈥檚 belligerent behavior.鈥�

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This, as in the first few days of October, Vietnam said that ten Vietnamese fishermen were violently beaten and robbed by men who came from vessels that bore Chinese flags.

Vietnam said that the fishermen were beaten with iron bars and robbed of thousands of dollars worth of fish and equipment on Sept. 29 off the Paracel Islands, where China has had, in effect, control since the Battle of the Paracel Islands in 1974.

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Some of the fishermen were brought to the hospital on Sept. 30 after arriving at Quang Ngai harbor, based on a report by state-run newspaper Tien Phong, which said that the victims were attacked by 40 individuals for three hours.

鈥淪o we see China continuously pursuing active escalation, but we are also seeing a shift in Vietnam鈥檚 perception towards China鈥檚 activities,鈥� Gill said as he stressed that Vietnam has become more vocal based on its recent foreign policy choices.

He pointed out that it is now trying to 鈥渕aximize its multi-aligned approach by strengthening security ties with like-minded countries in the West, Japan, Australia, and even immediate neighbors such as the Philippines.鈥�

Now clearer

As Gill said, 鈥渨e are seeing a more nuanced approach in Vietnam鈥檚 dealings with China鈥� as the latter鈥檚 harassment of fishermen, and even the coast guard and military in the case of the Philippines, is becoming clearer and clearer.

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He stressed that Viernam understands that the expansionism of China, which has 20 outposts in the Paracel Islands, does not discriminate鈥攖hat all countries asserting rights over some areas of the vast South China Sea can become victims of China鈥檚 aggression.

Back in June, China even acted like 鈥減irates鈥� in its attack against the Philippine Navy in Ayungin, or Second Thomas Shoal. The China Coast Guard (CCG) illegally boarded Filipino vessels, wielding bolos, knives, and spears.

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The Philippines is also a consistent victim of China鈥檚 introduction of weapons, like military-grade lasers and water cannons, which defense analyst Chester Cabalza said are reflecting the intensity of China鈥檚 gray zone tactics in the South China Sea.

This year, too, even with Malaysia saying that China should not be feared, China鈥檚 Ministry of Foreign Affairs had told Malaysia, which is exploring oil and gas reserves within its EEZ, that it already infringes on China鈥檚 sovereignty over the Spratly Islands.

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Spratly Islands, which China calls Nansha Qundao, is almost 750 miles away from its southernmost Hainan Island, but it still expressed 鈥渟trong concern and dissatisfaction鈥� over Malaysia鈥檚 exploration of oil and gas reserves.

Dominance

Based on data from the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI), China, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam are occupying reefs and islands spread across the South China Sea, constructing over 90 outposts.

China, it said, has 20 outposts in the Paracel Islands and seven in the Spratly Islands, including in areas within the EEZ of the Philippines, which won an arbitral award against China in 2016, declaring China鈥檚 nine, now 10-dash line as baseless and illegal.

Vietnam has 21 outposts in the Spratly Islands, however, it has 14 isolated platforms referred to as 鈥渆conomic, scientific, and technological service stations,鈥� or D峄媍h v峄�-Khoa (DK1).

AMTI said that in recent years, Vietnam has reclaimed new land at eight of the 10 rocks that it is occupying, and 鈥渂uilt out many of its smaller outposts on submerged reefs and banks.鈥�

For Gill, the incidents in the South China Sea and the responses from Vietnam, and even the Philippines, could trigger a more vibrant, a more reoriented approach towards China.

But while 鈥渨e don鈥檛 expect any immediate or radical shift in the short term [when it comes to Vietnamese foreign and security policy] we are seeing changes when we look at it based on an overall pattern.鈥�

鈥淭hese developments are definitely worth paying attention to,鈥� he said.

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