MANILA, Philippines 鈥� The Philippines remains under a La Ni帽a alert, with weak La Ni帽a conditions likely to persist until the February-March-April season, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said Wednesday.
鈥淚t鈥檚 still a La Ni帽a alert,鈥� Pagasa Assistant Weather Services chief Ana Liza Solis said during the agency鈥檚 climate forum.
Pagasa pointed out that under a La Ni帽a alert, higher chances of above normal rainfall is expected in the country which may cause floods and rain-induced landslides.
(Data visualization from the DOST / Pagasa)
鈥溾�榊ung (the) La Ni帽a conditions, 鈥榶ung (the) blue bar, emerged during December and is expected to persist through the February-March-April 2025 season with around 59 percent chance,鈥� she said.
Solis, however clarified that this La Ni帽a episode is expected to be 鈥渨eak and short-lived.鈥�
鈥淎 weak, short-lived La Ni帽a ang posible pong maranasan natin, at least up to the February-March-April season,鈥� she explained.
(A weak, short-lived La Ni帽a is likely to occur, at least until the February-March-April season.)
鈥淏ased on probabilistic Enso (El Ni帽o Southern Oscillation) forecast, three overlapping three months lang po siya posibleng magtagal,鈥� Solis added.
The three overlapping three-month periods are as聽follows: December-January-February, January-February-March, and February-March-April.
Solis explained that a 鈥渇ull-blown鈥� La Ni帽a requires sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific to stay at -0.5 degrees Celsius or lower for at least five overlapping three-month periods.
Current Pagasa forecasts, however, suggest that the La Ni帽a episode will only last for three overlapping seasons.
鈥淢akikita po na at least five overlapping three months dapat mag-stay siya ng -0.5 degrees centigrade or below average, pero ang forecast natin ay hanggang tatlong overlapping three months lamang,鈥� she clarified.
(It must remain at -0.5 degrees Celsius or below for at least five overlapping three-month periods, but our forecast indicates it will only last for three.)
鈥淭hat is why hindi po siya magaganap na La Ni帽a advisory, pero La Ni帽a alert ang nararapat,鈥� Solis maintained.
(That is why a La Ni帽a advisory is not issued, but a La Ni帽a alert is appropriate.)
Potential impact of weak La Ni帽a
Despite the short-lived and weak nature of the La Ni帽a, Solis warned that it could still bring above-normal rainfall to the country.
鈥淭his condition increases the likelihood of having above-normal rainfall conditions, which could lead to potential adverse impacts such as heavy rainfall, floods, flash floods, and rain-induced landslides over highly vulnerable areas,鈥� Solis warned.
鈥淗ighly exposed po ang mga areas situated along the eastern sections ng ating bansa, lalo na ngayong nasa northeast monsoon tayo,鈥� she added.
(Areas along the eastern sections of the country are highly exposed, especially during the northeast monsoon season.)
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The La Ni帽a alert was raised on January 7 as recent conditions met the criteria for its presence: a one-month SST anomaly of -0.5 degrees Celsius and the expectation that the three-month SST anomaly would also meet the -0.5 threshold.
Pagasa expects the tropical Pacific to transition back to Enso-neutral conditions鈥攚hen neither El Ni帽o nor La Ni帽a is present鈥攂y March-April-May 2025.
Enso-neutral conditions are characterized by near-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, falling between -0.5 degrees Celsius and +0.5 degrees Celsius and resulting in relatively stable weather patterns, Pagasa explained.