黑料社

MANILA, Philippines鈥揗inutes after former leader Rodrigo Duterte was bundled onto a plane bound for The Hague to face a charge of crimes against humanity, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said of the arrest: 鈥淧olitics doesn鈥檛 enter into it.鈥�

Complying with the International Criminal Court warrant tied to his predecessor鈥檚 deadly drug war was simply a matter of the Philippines meeting its international obligations, he told reporters.

But Tuesday鈥檚 shocking arrest, which comes barely a month after the impeachment of Duterte鈥檚 daughter Sara, the country鈥檚 vice president, has left the family鈥檚 national political fortunes in deep peril, analysts told Agence France-Presse.

鈥淟et me put it this way. Their situation wasn鈥檛 promising in the first place, even before all of these things happened,鈥� said Michael Henry Yusingco, senior fellow at the Ateneo Policy Center, pointing to polling for May鈥檚 mid-term elections.

Only three candidates from Duterte鈥檚 PDP Laban party are on track to grab one of the 12 nationally elected Senate seats, while Marcos鈥檚 ruling New Philippines Alliance has eight candidates firmly among the leaders.

Those elected will hold the deciding votes in the trial of the vice president, impeached last month on charges of graft, corruption and an alleged plot to assassinate her former running mate Marcos.

Given Marcos鈥檚 鈥渇ull control of the critical levers of government鈥� it鈥檚 certainly reasonable to speculate that this could be the end鈥� of the Duterte dynasty, said Yusingco, while cautioning it was too early 鈥渢o make a definitive judgment鈥�.

Cracks in the Marcos-Duterte alliance were already showing within weeks of the landslide 2022 election victory, with the vice president angered when she was denied the coveted defense portfolio.

But the simmering feud erupted in the months leading to her impeachment, which was overseen by House Speaker Martin Romualdez, a Marcos cousin.

Public sniping between the two dynasties saw the elder Duterte label Marcos, the one man who could have shielded him from the ICC, a drug addict.

The president, in turn, has spent much of his recent time on the campaign trail railing against Duterte鈥檚 bloody drug crackdown.

鈥淎t the end of the day, (the arrest) would not have happened had there not been a rift between the two of them,鈥� said Jean Franco, assistant chair of the University of the Philippines鈥� political science department.

鈥楥aught off guard鈥�

The former president, due in court on Friday, was arrested three days earlier at Manila鈥檚 international airport after returning home from a trip from Hong Kong in the face of rumors an ICC warrant had been issued.

The decision to return may have been because he hoped 鈥渢o portray himself as a victim鈥�, political analyst Richard Heydarian told AFP, a gambit that immediately backfired.

鈥淭he government outsmarted him by making sure that they had a mechanism in place to鈥� whisk him away directly to The Hague,鈥� Heydarian said.

鈥淚 think that really caught them off guard because I think the Dutertes were hoping to鈥� employ legal delaying tactics,鈥� he said, like taking it to the courts to buy supporters time to mount large-scale rallies.

But the speed of Duterte鈥檚 transfer to The Hague 鈥� arrested and flown out on the same day 鈥� made any such plans moot.

While Franco agreed some voters may have bought into a victim narrative, Yusingco was less convinced.

鈥淰oters will not be swayed in (the Dutertes鈥�) favor just because he was arrested,鈥� he said.

Charisma deficit

No matter the outcome of May鈥檚 election, the vacuum left by Duterte鈥檚 exit may be impossible to replace from within the family ranks.

鈥淢y sense is that the charisma of the Dutertes is really largely because of the elder Duterte,鈥� said Franco.

鈥淚 don鈥檛 think (Sara) or the sons (one a congressman, another the mayor of family stronghold Davao) actually inherited his brand, the charisma he has for their base.鈥�

And expecting the increasingly frail 79-year-old patriarch to lead the family鈥檚 fight-back from a cell in The Hague was unrealistic.

鈥淚 imagine it would be extremely, extremely difficult given his age鈥� (more than) the fact that he鈥檚 detained,鈥� Yusingco said.

However, he added that 鈥測ou can never underestimate a politician like former president Duterte鈥�.

鈥淗e may still have allies out there that can still make noise and still mobilize,鈥� Yusingco said.

Franco, meanwhile, said she believed it was his daughter鈥檚 impeachment that might mark 鈥渢he beginning of the end for the Duterte brand鈥�.

鈥淥f course,鈥� she added, 鈥渋n Philippine politics, you can always rebrand.鈥�