PARIS鈥擳he release of Dominique Strauss-Kahn on Friday (Saturday in Manila) from house arrest in New York represented a startling turnaround, sharpening the focus of political debate here on a central and potent issue: With the weakening of sexual assault charges against him, will he be able to resume a potentially stellar career that could lead to the presidency of his country?
The question divided opinion as much among Strauss-Kahn鈥檚 own Socialist Party followers as those on the right. Moments after his release, the party spokesperson, Benoit Hamon, told reporters that the court鈥檚 decision had come as an 鈥渋ntense relief.鈥�
Beyond that, the calculation likely to absorb party strategists revolved around the degree to which Strauss-Kahn, the former head of the International Monetary Fund, had been damaged by weeks of disclosures and allegations that, even days ago, seemed to have drawn an abrupt and indelible line across his ambitions and his career.
Before Strauss-Kahn鈥檚 release from house arrest, two well-placed law enforcement officials in New York said that the case against him was on the verge of collapse because of major questions about the credibility of his accuser, a hotel housekeeper who accused him of sexually assaulting her in a suite at the Sofitel in Manhattan in mid-May.
Suprising shift
The surprising shift in his favor both fascinated and divided France on Friday, spurring calls from his supporters for his rehabilitation.
鈥淔rance needs his competence, his talents and his international standing,鈥� said the former culture minister Jack Lang, a Socialist and close ally.
Earlier, other Socialists expressed doubts.
鈥淟et鈥檚 all stay calm. The version of the story has changed before and could change again,鈥� Gerard Le Gall, a Socialist and public opinion expert, said hours before a court in Manhattan changed the terms of Strauss-Kahn鈥檚 bail, freeing him on his own recognizance. 鈥淚t鈥檚 too early to draw any conclusions.鈥�
Jean-Marie Le Guen, a Socialist lawmaker, said it was 鈥減remature to talk about politics鈥� but added that 鈥渋n the battle of the presidential elections of 2012, he could play a very important role.鈥�
Before his arrest, Strauss-Kahn had been expected to resign from the IMF to run as the Socialist candidate against President Nicolas Sarkozy next year. But after his arrest he was forced to quit, and the fractious French Socialists embarked on a potentially draining quest for a new candidate.
All that changed on Friday when France awoke to reports that the case against him was unexpectedly crumbling.
鈥淭his is like a thunderbolt,鈥� said Lionel Jospin, a former Socialist prime minister who is close to Strauss-Kahn.
Opinion divided
On the streets here, opinion seemed divided about whether the personal details that have emerged since Strauss-Kahn鈥檚 arrest would preclude him from high office, whatever the outcome.
鈥淧eople are not going to forgive him. At a political level, he is dead,鈥� said Agnes Berge, 44, who works for a law firm.
But Sophie Leseur, 50, an artist, said the saga could turn Strauss-Kahn into a 鈥渕artyr.鈥�
鈥淗is reputation is tarnished forever,鈥� said Marie Chuinard, 25, a legal adviser. 鈥淚 think he can come back to French political life, but internationally he is burned.鈥�
His arrest had also led to soul-searching about the treatment of women in France, inspiring what some see as a new readiness among women to challenge male dominance.
The news from New York spread rapidly across television, radio and Internet news outlets. Blaring headlines spoke of what the conservative newspaper Le Figaro called a 鈥渢hunderbolt鈥� and the left-leaning Liberation termed a 鈥渃oup de theatre.鈥�
Martine Aubry, the Socialist Party leader, was quoted on the website of the magazine L鈥橢xpress as expressing 鈥渋mmense joy鈥� that the case seemed to be faltering.
Unpleasant morning for Sarkozy
鈥淪peaking as a friend of DSK, I hope the American justice system will establish all the truth and allow Dominique to get out of this nightmare,鈥� she said, using the initials by which Strauss-Kahn is widely known here.
The development seemed to offer more ambiguous tidings for Sarkozy and his allies, and some acknowledged that they had been premature in celebrating Strauss-Kahn鈥檚 political demise.
鈥淚 think Sarkozy and his friends are going to have a very unpleasant morning,鈥� said Claude Bartolone, a Socialist legislator.
A presidential spokesperson said that Sarkozy had no immediate comment. If the charges against Strauss-Kahn are dropped, he could still affect the presidential elections, said Lang, the former Socialist culture minister.
鈥淗e could still play a major role in France, without being a candidate,鈥� he said. 鈥淭his would give an extra chance for victory.鈥�
Strauss-Kahn could even be appointed a minister under a Socialist president, Lang added.
There had been expectations that the developments in New York would unleash anti-American tirades about his treatment.
Patrice Rande, 50, an insurance office manager, said the case risked stoking anti-American feeling with the impression that the New York police had deliberately humiliated Strauss-Kahn.
鈥淲e were made to believe he was guilty, we dropped him, we really bought this,鈥� Rande said. 鈥淚鈥檓 shocked that they didn鈥檛 take more care.鈥�
But in conversations with other Parisians, there seemed to be little rancor toward the US justice system, beyond a broad sense that it was, as one French legal adviser put it, 鈥渕uscular.鈥�
No proof of innocence
Some people warned against allowing the pendulum of opinion that swung against Strauss-Kahn to swing back too quickly in his favor. Marie Nury, a boutique owner, expressed dismay at the speed with which the news seemed to persuade some people that Strauss-Kahn was blameless.
鈥淚 don鈥檛 know if he鈥檚 guilty or not,鈥� she said, 鈥渂ut this doesn鈥檛 prove he is innocent.鈥�
With registration for the Socialists鈥� October primaries in full swing as a July 13 deadline approaches, some began lobbying for a suspension of the process to give Strauss-Kahn a chance to re-enter the race. A group of Strauss-Kahn supporters issued a statement saying the Socialist Party should 鈥減repare to welcome Dominique Strauss-Kahn in France鈥� and extend the timetable for primary nominations.
A senior Socialist, who requested anonymity, said the party could not afford knee-jerk reactions.
鈥淲hat if we all embrace him again and then he turns out to be guilty after all?鈥� he said. 鈥淲e have to wait for a clear and definite outcome before making any decisions. Our voters have lost trust not just in him but the party. We have to be careful.鈥�
Former Finance Minister Christine Lagarde, who was selected by the IMF on Tuesday to take over Strauss-Kahn鈥檚 job as managing director, was not immediately available for comment.
鈥淭his doesn鈥檛 change anything,鈥� said an IMF official close to the transition. 鈥淚t鈥檚 unusual, but he has resigned. She鈥檚 the new managing director; the staff are waiting for her.鈥�
鈥淪he has a full plate and she鈥檚 ready to hit the ground running,鈥� the official added.
France鈥檚 reputation
As for France鈥檚 reputation, some Parisians concluded that it would never quite recover.
鈥淧eople used to think about baguettes when they thought about France, now they think DSK,鈥� said Djamila Salah, a social worker. 鈥淔or France鈥檚 reputation it would be good if he was rehabilitated by the American justice system鈥攅ven if a little doubt would always remain.鈥澛� New York Times 黑料社 Service