Surveys conducted by the University of San Carlos (USC) in November 2012 and March this year revealed a neck-to-neck battle for the mayoralty between Mayor Michael Rama and Cebu south district Rep. Tomas Osme帽a.
For the vice mayoralty and the north and south congressional races however, Bando Osme帽a Pundok Kagawasan 鈥� Liberal Party (BOPK-LP) bets have started to pull away from their Team Rama rivals.
The March survey result has seen Osme帽a leading Rama with 50.6 percent. The incumbent mayor trailed at 43.6. The undecided was pegged at 5.5 percent. The March result shows some promise to the BOPK-LP standard bearer who was trailing Rama in the November USC survey.
The survey results released yesterday saw Rama鈥檚 44.9 percent is slightly leading Osme帽a鈥檚 40.3 percent in the November survey. Undecided for the mayoralty race that time was 14.8 percent.
For the vice mayoralty BOPK-LP reelectionist Joy Augustus Young leads Councilor Edgardo Labella in the November and March surveys.
Young鈥檚 figures rose from 46.9 percent in November to 53.10 percent in March, against Labella鈥檚 34.7 percent in November and 40.3 percent in March. The undecided was 18.4 percent in November and 6.6 last March.
For the north district congressional race, the figures are not assuring at all for showbiz celebrity Anabelle Rama whose 10.95 percent in November declined to 6.25 in March against Raul del Mar鈥檚 84.72 percent in November and 85.11 in March.
A similar story can be gleaned in the south district with Councilor Rodrigo Abellanosa pulling away from 53.55 percent in November to 64.16 in March against lawyer Aristotle Batuhan鈥檚 28.44 percent in November and 31.1 percent in March.
Still unpredictable
Brenette Abrinica, program director of the survey said that the race between Rama and Osme帽a is still unpredictable.
鈥淭his is very telling, Osme帽a worked for the last four months with that 10.30 percent increase in vote over Rama. Rama should also work to maintain the slim margin of the decrease. Rama cannot afford the increase of the decrease. If the decrease will increase, more than 8.2 percent will be favoring for Tomas,鈥� says Abrenica.
For the vice mayoralty, Abrenica said that Young is establishing a 12.8 percent margin. But it also has to be noted that none of them garnered a decreasing rate from November to March. Labella increased at 5.6 percent while Young increased at 6.2 percent.
鈥淚f Labella is experiencing an increasing rate, he has to double the effort in increasing such rate for him to be at par to the statistics of Young,鈥� says Abrenica.
For the north district congressional race, the statistical change of Anabelle Rama scoring an upset is very slim. Eight of 10 voters prefer Del Mar.
Abrenica said, the same can be said with the south district congressional election between Abellanosa and Batuhan.
Grace Magalso, Chairperson of the USC Political Science Department said that the main rational is to address the concern that there is an absence of the local counterpart of SWS survey.
Magalso said that the Department of Political Science Center for Governance, Leadership, and Development at USC is a non-partisan group.
鈥淏eing truthful to our task in the academe to intervene when necessary to shape political discourse and to help the Cebuanos to come up with political decisions, we decided to have this,鈥� she added.
The November survey had 500 respondents with +/- 4.3 percent margin of error, while the March survey had 1,500 respondents with +/-2.5 margin of error.
All the respondents were registered voters in the 30-49 years old age range, with income of about P10,000 per month.
The respondents were made to answer 21 pre-structured questions.聽 /Carine M. Asutilla, Correspondent