Tropical Depression 鈥淲ilma鈥� made landfall in Surigao del Sur province Monday morning, bringing stormy weather in 16 areas in the Visayas, including earthquake-ravaged Cebu and Bohol, and Mindanao.
Wilma, however, weakened into a low pressure area after hitting land, allowing forecasters to concentrate their attention on another weather disturbance approaching the Philippines.
The Hawaii-based Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the US Navy has named that weather disturbance Tropical Storm 鈥淗aiyan鈥� from being mere 鈥淭ropical Depression 31W.鈥�
Moving west at 20 kilometers per hour, with sustained winds of 65 kph and gusts of up to 83 kph, Haiyan is expected to enter the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) between Wednesday night and Thursday morning.
Yolanda
When Haiyan enters the PAR, it will be renamed Tropical Cyclone 鈥淵olanda,鈥� the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said Monday.
The JWTC expects Haiyan to gain strength Tuesday morning, with maximum sustained winds of 83 kph and gusts of up to 102 kph.
But Pagasa forecaster Fernando Cada said on Monday that it was too early to tell if Yolanda would become a supertyphoon by JWTC standards, as the cyclone was still too far, about 2,000 km east of Mindanao, or 1,600 km east of the PAR.
By JWTC standards, a weather disturbance should have winds of up to at least 240 kph to be classified supertyphoon.
鈥淎lthough there are weather models, there is still a 50-50 chance of that happening. It is still within what we call the 鈥榗one of uncertainty,鈥� which means there is a large chance of error,鈥� Cada said.
Possible changes
As the cyclone is still too far, certain factors could affect its strength, speed and direction, Cada said.
鈥淚t is expected to intensify into a typhoon while still over the ocean, but it can change direction. Like now, it is moving west but later on it could move north-northwest,鈥� he said.
鈥淲e can only make a fairly accurate track of the tropical cyclone once it is within the PAR but not when it is still too far,鈥� he said, referring to reports on the Internet saying 鈥淪upertyphoon Yolanda鈥� making landfall in Leyte province by Friday.
Pagasa does not use the category 鈥渟upertyphoon,鈥� Cada said.
鈥淎lthough it is too soon to forecast [the cyclone鈥檚] track, what we can advise the public is to always be prepared,鈥� he said.
Landfall
Wilma hit land in Tandag town before noon Monday with maximum winds of 55 kph.
By afternoon, however, the storm had weakened into a low pressure area that was embedded in the intertropical convergence zone 15 km southwest of Tagbilaran City.
Earlier, as Wilma approached land, Pagasa raised Storm Signal No. 1 over Camiguin, Dinagat and Siargao islands; Surigao del Norte; Surigao del Sur; Agusan del Norte; Agusan del Sur; Misamis Oriental; Misamis Occidental; and the northern part of Zamboanga del Norte.
Signal No. 1 was also raised over the southern parts of Negros Occidental and Negros Oriental; southern Cebu; Siquijor; Bohol; and Southern Leyte in the Visayas.
Pagasa lifted the storm signal after Wilma turned into a low pressure area.
The weather bureau, however, alerted the Visayas as well as the Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao and Caraga regions for possible flash floods and landslides that may be triggered by moderate to occasionally heavy rain and thunderstorms on Tuesday.
Stranded travelers
In earthquake-ravaged Bohol, nearly 2,000 travelers were stranded at Tubigon port after the Philippine Coast Guard grounded all vessels in expectation of Wilma鈥檚 arrival.
Many of those stranded were going back to work and school after the All Saints鈥� Day and All Souls鈥� Day commemorations during the weekend.
The suspension of sailings was announced at noon, and many of the travelers decided to go home.
Others, however, chose to stay and wait for the resumption of trips.
Cada told the Inquirer that from 1948 to 2010, tropical cyclones that entered the Philippines during October, November and December had a high percentage of making landfall.
He explained that it was because around October through December the concentration of the intertropical convergence zone, which he described as a breeding ground for low pressure areas, was usually over the south of the country, particularly over the Visayas and Mindanao.
Pagasa expects three to five more tropical cyclones to hit the Philippines before the year ends, Cada said.鈥�With a report from Jhunnex Napallacan, Inquirer Visayas
听
SEE ALSO:
Tropical depression 鈥榃ilma鈥� weakens into LPA
Signal No.1 up in 7 areas due to tropical depression 鈥榃ilma鈥�