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A lower-than-expected fertility rate means China鈥檚 population will peak in 2025, something the country鈥檚 leadership will have to seriously consider when drawing up its forthcoming national development blueprint, said a senior Chinese demographic expert in Brussels.
China鈥檚 population is expected to peak at 1.41 billion in 2025 and the total population in 2050 will be much lower than it is today, said Zhang Juwei, director of the Institute of Population and Labor Economics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
鈥淭hese projections are part of the background reports we submitted for China鈥檚 leadership to consider when it designs its new national five-year plan,鈥� said Zhang, who headed a team of Chinese experts holding exchanges with their European counterparts at a two-day seminar on economic restructuring and changing employment structures in Brussels on Monday and Tuesday.
At the end of 2014, China鈥檚 population was 1.37 billion. After it peaks in 2025, it is expected to decline to 1.3 billion in 2050, according to Zhang.
But China鈥檚 labor supply will remain roughly stable up until 2030 despite the ageing and low-fertility challenges the country faces, he added.
His team predicts that China鈥檚 labour supply will range between 14.93 million and 16.98 million people every year from 2013 to 2030, with the number of graduates joining the workforce growing steadily.
鈥淲e believe that China鈥檚 demographic changes, even amid the challenges, can sustain at least 10 years of medium-speed growth if we have sensible policy options,鈥� said Zhang.
China鈥檚 top leaders will meet soon at a plenary session of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, at which they will discuss the upcoming 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-20) for national development.
Lin Bao, a research fellow at Zhang鈥檚 institute, said at the seminar that China鈥檚 family planning policy is likely to be 鈥渢otally relaxed鈥� in the face of the country鈥檚 fertility and labour supply challenges.
鈥淲e have relaxed the family policy by allowing those only-child couples to give birth to a second child but, so far, this policy has not achieved the desired results. So I believe that our family planning policy will be totally relaxed soon,鈥� Lin said.
Jorg Peschner, a European Commission official said both China and the European Union face the same aging and lower fertility challenges.
鈥淲e both have to shift from the demographic dividend, which has contributed to previous economic growth, to the productivity dividend to sustain the economy,鈥� Peschner said.
Gunther Schmid, a retired professor of political economy at the Free University Berlin warned that China may get into difficulties if its development strategy is mainly based on the demographic dividend.
鈥淏ut on the other hand, I think China can certainly remain competitive, mainly because young people in China are already highly qualified, which comprises China鈥檚 growth strength if they are fully employed,鈥� said Schmid.
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