黑料社

BUCKLE up, folks.

The May 9 general elections will likely end up as the wildest, down-to-the-wire political contest this politics-obsessed country has ever seen. And we鈥檙e just talking about the presidency.

There are no runaway favorites in this year鈥檚 mad scramble for Malaca帽ang. The most recent survey shows four presidential candidates have a realistic chance of winning while another is a sentimental favorite who鈥檚 running for the third time but who should鈥檝e won at her first crack.

Pundits interviewed by the Inquirer consider this a make-or-break election for Sen. Grace Poe, Vice President Jejomar Binay, Liberal Party (LP) standard-bearer Mar Roxas, Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte, and Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago. Winning is everything and the only thing in politics, and defeat could probably mean curtains down for his or her political career.

So what鈥檚 at stake for losers in these elections?

This will probably be the last bus ride to Malaca帽ang for three senior citizens鈥擝inay, 73, Duterte, 70, and Santiago, 70. But Edmund S. Tayao of the University of Santo Tomas鈥� Department of Political Science said that 鈥渨in now鈥� was also the mantra of Roxas who, albeit still middle-aged at 58 years old, could not afford to lose a national election back-to-back, especially coming off from the bitter defeat in what was supposed to be a cakewalk to the vice presidency in 2010.

鈥淚t will surely be a big blow not only to his political career but also to his morale. But more than that, losing also means that the proverbial endorsement power of an Aquino may now be diluted,鈥� Tayao said.

Most to lose

Akbayan Rep. Walden Bello, who is seeking a Senate seat, said that among the five candidates, Roxas and Binay had the most to lose.

Bello said that a Roxas defeat would not only have personal consequences, it would also mean payback lawsuits against LP members for their purported indiscretions in the last six years, particularly Budget Secretary Butch Abad and President Aquino.

鈥淚f Mar loses, expect the prosecution of Butch Abad for DAP (Disbursement Acceleration Program) and the President for DAP and Mamasapano. Abad will probably end up in jail but it鈥檚 unlikely that the Office of the Ombudsman and the Sandiganbayan will convict Aquino. Abad will most likely fall on his sword for his boss on DAP,鈥� Bello said.

For Binay, Bello said winning Malaca帽ang was like getting a 鈥済et out of jail free card鈥� because he was expected to be imprisoned for his alleged deals while he was mayor of Makati City.

Tayao said Duterte and Poe had the least to lose in these elections.

鈥淢ayor Duterte has declared a number of times he would retire after this, win or lose. His daughter who is equally revered in Davao, Sara Duterte, may very well sustain their hold on the city. On the other hand, losing may be taken to mean a local figure will have to start with a lower position, say at the Senate before running for President for one to get a chance,鈥� Tayao said.

Poe has the least at stake in the race because she still has three years remaining in her senatorial term, unless she loses her citizenship case in the Supreme Court.

Wild, wild elections

These elections, however, will not be for the faint-hearted.

Ako Bicol Rep. Rodel Batocabe said that these would be the most unpredictable elections ever not only because voter preference was so dispersed, but because of the variables that had yet to unfold in the next three months before Election Day.

Batocabe cited the Supreme Court鈥檚 decision on whether to allow Poe to run; the health issues hounding some candidates; the final shift in political alliances; and the final candidates of big-money financiers.

The LP political affairs chief, Caloocan Rep. Edgar Erice, said Poe鈥檚 disqualification case due to questions on her citizenship and residency issues would be a 鈥済ame-changer鈥� in the elections.

With so much unpredictability, Batocabe said this year鈥檚 elections were bound to be the most expensive ever as each presidential candidate would go all out in their ad spending on television, radio, print and social media because most of them believe they have a chance to win it all.

Batocabe said the Commission on Elections (Comelec) had all but guaranteed this spending bonanza when it allowed candidates to use up to 120 minutes of TV airtime and 180 minutes of radio ads for each station when previously these were computed on an aggregate basis for all stations.

Hotbed of intrigue

Adding more drama in this year鈥檚 campaign is the lack of solid political alliances where a presidential candidate has one running mate and a solid ticket of senators, he said.

This year鈥檚 elections have become a hotbed of intrigue with numerous combinations of presidential and vice presidential candidates (Grace-Leni, Binay-Chiz, Duterte-Bongbong) and senators backed by multiple presidential candidates, such as former Sen. Miguel Zubiri who was endorsed by Poe, Binay and Duterte.

Another factor in the hurly-burly elections is the continued ascent of the Marcos family back to power 30 years after they were booted out of Malaca帽ang. Sen. Ferdinand 鈥淏ongbong鈥� Marcos Jr. has made the vice presidential race as interesting as the presidential race. President Aquino has taken note and this could provide more impetus to personally campaign for the LP people.

The 鈥渄aang matuwid鈥� coalition spokesperson, Marikina Rep. Romero Quimbo, is sure of one thing: If all five presidential candidates finish the race, the winner will not be the choice of the majority of the voters.

鈥淛udging from all the survey numbers coming out, it鈥檚 absolutely anybody鈥檚 ball game. And certainly, it鈥檚 a race down to the wire. Everyone agrees that whoever wins this, will be a minority President. At the onset, he will be immediately faced with a mandate challenge. A minority President will only succeed if he鈥檚 a unifier鈥攕omeone who will be acceptable to the supporters of other presidential candidates,鈥� Quimbo said.

鈥淥nly Mar fits that bill鈥攏o record of corruption, consensus builder, a great courtier of opponents. It would be a shame to throw away all the country鈥檚 accomplishments in the last six years if we end up voting for a minority President who鈥檚 polarizing and divisive,鈥� he added.

Valenzuela Mayor Rex Gatchalian said that Poe, should she win, would be willing to work with everybody in moving her programs forward.

Compromises

鈥淣aturally, because of her independent status she will not have incumbent party mates to boast off. Despite this, she will reach across the aisle working with all organized political parties to make her programs for the people turn into reality. Running as an independent, Senator Poe enjoys the advantage of making her government inclusive鈥攂eing able to cross party lines to get things done,鈥� said Gatchalian, Poe鈥檚 spokesperson.

鈥淚t鈥檚 鈥榯ayo rather than kami鈥� or breaking the traditional mold of only being able to work within the confines of your political party. Senator Poe will be able to transcend the restrictive traditional concepts of governance through political parties,鈥� Gatchalian said.

But Bello said that any President would find a way to make compromises, just like in the past.

鈥淚 think there has never been a minority President in this country since whoever is elected has been able to use the tremendous powers of the President to immediately construct an overweening majority. This is a great flaw here since the traditional way of constructing majorities on personal and political grounds will preclude the kind of coalitions based on common stands that are so necessary today. This personalist-political compromises are what derailed 鈥榙aang matuwid,鈥欌�� Bello said.

Whether majority or minority President, Bello said the country鈥檚 new leader would have to tackle head on the next administration鈥檚 biggest problems鈥攁 spurned Muslim Mindanao still licking its wounds from the nonpassage of the much-hyped proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) and a discontented population increasingly left out of the spoils of the country鈥檚 rising economy.

鈥淚f the next admin does not prioritize the BBL bill and pass it within the first year, I expect the MILF (Moro Islamic Liberation Front) to return to combat, if only to outflank BIFF (Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters) and Isis (Islamic State in Iraq and Syria), which would reap tremendous political advantage from the failure of the BBL. Expect Isis to convert not only the whole of Mindanao but the whole country into a battleground as they seek out US troops to draw into battle,鈥� said Bello.

Bello said the next President would have to act quickly on ensuring inclusive growth or risk being hobbled by 鈥渃onservative economic management that will hesitate to undertake more fundamental reforms like legislating security of tenure for workers and more aggressive agrarian reform and is stuck with the highly inadequate CCT (conditional cash transfer).鈥�

But Bello is not keeping up his hopes that this year鈥檚 elections would end up differently from previous versions.

鈥淚 am afraid none of the presidential candidates realize the enormity of the problems we face demand solutions outside the coordinates of traditional politics and the winner will most probably reign in the same old way until it鈥檚 too late. The failure of Aquino is not only the failure of a politician who was out of his depth but also the failure of the politics he was socialized into,鈥� he said.

Eradicating poverty

The United Nationalist Alliance president, Navotas Rep. Toby Tiangco, said the Vice President was clear on what was at stake in the elections: 鈥淚t鈥檚 not about Binay or any of the other candidates, it鈥檚 about eradicating poverty.鈥�

Tiangco brushed aside fears that Binay would be a vengeful leader and hound the administration officials who persecuted him. 鈥淏inay still considers P-Noy a friend and the friendship should not be affected by politics. P-Noy is assured to be accorded what is due him as a former President,鈥� Tiangco said.

Tiangco said a Binay presidency would ensure the independence of the Office of the Ombudsman and the Sandiganbayan and that these entities would not be used against political opponents or to protect allies.