Vice President Jejomar Binay and Sen. Grace Poe. INQUIRER FILE PHOTOS
Four weeks into the campaign for Malaca帽ang, Sen. Grace Poe and Vice President Jejomar Binay are in a standoff for the lead, according to the results of the latest Pulse Asia voter preference poll for the May 9 presidential election.
READ: Poe, Binay share lead; Escudero, Marcos 鈥榮tatistically tied鈥欌�擯ulse Asia
The results of the poll released on Friday showed that Poe is favored by 26 percent of 1,800 registered-voter respondents, while Binay has a voter support of 25 percent.
Given the poll鈥檚 margin of error of plus-or-minus 2 percentage points, Binay is also statistically tied with Liberal Party standard-bearer Mar Roxas and Partido Demokratikong Pilipino-Lakas ng Bayan (PDP-Laban) presidential candidate Rodrigo Duterte, who are tied again at 21 percent.
Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago remains at the rear, with a voter support of 3 percent.
The standoff with Binay will not last long, according to Poe鈥檚 camp.
With the recent endorsement of the Nationalist People鈥檚 Coalition (NPC), the country鈥檚 second-largest political party, Poe will pull away in the next poll, Valenzuela City Mayor Rex Gatchalian, spokesperson for Poe鈥檚 campaign, said Poe.
He said the NPC鈥檚 more than 4,000 members across the country would serve as Poe鈥檚 鈥渟urrogates鈥� in bringing her message to the voters.
鈥淒espite all the left-handed attacks against the person of Senator Poe, the Filipino voters continue to stand behind her,鈥� Gatchalian said.
Poe, who topped the 2013 senatorial election with more than 20 million votes, is fighting in the Supreme Court two Commission on Elections decisions disqualifying her from the presidential election because she is not a natural-born Filipino and she does not meet the 10-year residency requirement for candidates.
The court is expected to hand down a ruling in the next few days.
鈥楬istory will repeat itself鈥�
Binay does not think Poe will run all the way to Malaca帽ang. Instead, he sees a repeat of his come-from-behind victory in the 2010 election.
鈥淗istorically, that鈥檚 what happened [in 2010]. I moved up in the last two months, especially in the last two weeks. I think history [will repeat itself],鈥� Binay told reporters in Bulacan province, where he was campaigning on Friday.
READ: 鈥楬istory repeats itself鈥�: Confident Binay sees victory in presidential polls
Roxas was happy with the slight improvement in his poll standing.
READ: Roxas upbeat with rise in survey rating: Public won鈥檛 be deceived
鈥淲e are grateful, because the reason why our numbers are this close is the people鈥檚 support for [the straight path],鈥� Roxas said, referring to President Aquino鈥檚 reform program.
鈥淭hey are the ones who wield the real power [to elect their leaders]. I believe that they will not back down from fraudsters, thieves and those who don鈥檛 know where they will take us,鈥� he told reporters on Olango Island, Cebu province, where he was campaigning yesterday with his running mate, Camarines Sur Rep. Leni Robredo.
For Malaca帽ang, the poll results mean the 鈥渞ace is tightening鈥� for Roxas.
鈥淭he posturing is wearing thin as reality is catching up with those increasingly unable to withstand scrutiny,鈥� presidential spokesperson Edwin Lacierda said.
鈥淎s the public鈥檚 attention and concentration increases, the breakthrough of the true candidates of reform is imminent,鈥� he said, referring to Roxas and Robredo.
The camp of Duterte, the pugnacious mayor of Davao City, said the results of the Pulse Asia poll did not reflect the real sentiments of the voters.
Pete Lavi帽a, Duterte鈥檚 spokesperson, said, however, that the poll results gave the mayor reason to work harder.
鈥淭he elections are still a good two months away and we have plenty of time to move up,鈥� Lavi帽a said.
鈥楴o surrender鈥�
Santiago said she would 鈥渘ever surrender鈥� despite straggling in the polls.
鈥淓ven as we gather in this hot place, notwithstanding the inconvenience, I will never stop. I will never quit. I will never surrender,鈥� Santiago told hundreds of cheering students in the covered court of Our Lady of Fatima University in Valenzuela City on Friday.
Santiago did not make it clear, however, whether she was commenting on the results of the latest Pulse Asia poll.
She said it was her moral duty to run for President.
鈥淵ou ask me how we can change our country. It鈥檚 [by changing] ourselves. It鈥檚 such a bad world but instead you say, 鈥楪od, change this world and begin with me,鈥� she said.
Santiago is battling lung cancer, though she says she is in remission.
鈥楶retty tight race鈥�
Pulse Asia conducted the nationwide, noncommissioned poll from Feb. 15 to 20, a week after the campaign started on Feb. 9.
Poe鈥檚 latest score is 4 points down from 30 percent in January, when she was the front-runner.
Preference for Binay as President moved by 2 points from 23 percent in January, while Roxas and Duterte鈥攚ho were tied with 20 percent each last month鈥攊mproved in standing听 by a point.
Santiago鈥檚 score was lower by a point from 4 percent in January.
鈥淕iven the margin of error, Senator Poe and the Vice President are statistically tied. Meanwhile, Binay is also in a statistical tie with Duterte and Roxas,鈥� said Ronald Holmes, Pulse Asia president.
鈥淭he campaign had just started when we conducted the survey,鈥� he said. 鈥淚t has led so far to the retention of voter preference levels for the candidates.鈥�
Holmes noted that no candidate registered significant increases or declines.
鈥淚t鈥檚 a pretty tight race,鈥� he said, adding that Poe鈥檚 7-point decline among Class D voters is perhaps the only movement worth noting within areas and socioeconomic classes.
鈥楾oo close to call鈥�
Edmund Tayao, political science professor at the University of Santo Tomas, also thinks the race is 鈥渢oo close to call.鈥�
鈥淗onestly, this is an election where we can鈥檛 really say when we can expect a pattern,鈥� he said. 鈥淚t seems that all the campaigns still lack something, and voters are still waiting for it before they make up their minds. The usual propaganda is really no longer enough.鈥�
With the poll conducted before the first presidential debate in Cagayan de Oro City on Feb. 21, Tayao said it would have been interesting to see the debate鈥檚 effects on the numbers.
鈥淪everal points raised during the debate would have played right into the public鈥檚 discussion,鈥� he said.
Tayao said it was time for the candidates to be more forthcoming about their specific positions on issues.
鈥淲hen candidates offer more specific pronouncements, say on issues like tax restructuring or the West Philippine Sea, they can give the voters more to chew on, so to speak,鈥� he said.
Across areas
Support for Poe was virtually unmoved in the Visayas (24 percent from 26 percent) and Mindanao (15 percent from 16 percent). In Metro Manila, it went from 33 percent to 23 percent, while it was at 33 percent in the rest of Luzon (from 39 percent).
By class, Poe retained her score among Class ABC (25 percent), while among Class E it moved from 26 percent to 28 percent. Pulse Asia noted as significant Poe鈥檚 7-point dip among Class D (25 percent from 32 percent).
Binay鈥檚 ratings were unchanged in Metro Manila (33 percent from 32 percent), the rest of Luzon (29 percent from 28 percent), and the Visayas (20 percent). It slightly moved in Mindanao (21 percent from 14 percent).
The Vice President鈥檚 score also moved among Class ABC (14 percent from 21 percent), Class D (25 percent from 22 percent) and Class E (31 percent from 30 percent).
Duterte鈥檚 ratings were statistically unchanged in the rest of Luzon (10 percent from 8 percent), the Visayas (19 percent from 15 percent) and Mindanao (45 percent from 48 percent). In Metro Manila, it was at 23 percent (from 16 percent).
Preference for Duterte was unchanged among Class ABC (24 percent), Class D (22 percent from 21 percent) and Class E (18 percent from 15 percent).
Across areas, Roxas鈥� scores were unchanged in Metro Manila (11 percent), the rest of Luzon (19 percent from 16 percent), the Visayas (35 percent from 32 percent). In Mindanao, it was at 15 percent (from 21 percent).
Likewise, the ratings of Roxas moved among Class ABC (25 percent from 20 percent), Class D (21 percent from 19 percent) and Class E (19 percent from 25 percent).
The ratings of Santiago were unchanged in the rest of Luzon (4 percent) and Mindanao (1 percent) and virtually unmoved in Metro Manila (5 percent from 6 percent) and the Visayas (2 percent from 4 percent).
Santiago also retained her score among Class D (4 percent) and Class E (1 percent) and moved among Class ABC (1 percent from 7 percent).
Among the issues that dominated the headlines at the time of the survey were the hearings in the Supreme Court on the disqualification cases against Poe, the adjournment of Congress without passing the proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law and the freedom of information bill. With reports from Leila B. Salaverria, Tarra Quismundo, Nancy C. Carvajal, Nikko Dizon and Dona Z. Pazzibugan in Manila; Marlon Ramos in Cebu; and Nico Alconaba, Inquirer Mindanao
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