黑料社

EDINBURGH, Scotland鈥擳he United Kingdom鈥檚 stunning vote to depart the European Union could end in the breakup of the UK itself.

While majorities of voters in England and Wales backed the campaign to leave the 28-nation bloc, the UK鈥檚 two other regions of Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to stay. Hot on the heels of Friday鈥檚 results, nationalist leaders in both countries vowed to leave the UK if that is the required price to keep their homelands fully connected to Europe.

Scotland, where nationalists already in power narrowly lost a 2014 independence referendum, appears poised to be first out the UK door if its English neighbors don鈥檛 manage a negotiated U-turn to remain inside the EU. Most analysts dismiss that prospect.

鈥淪cotland faces the prospect of being taken out of the EU against our will. I regard that as democratically unacceptable,鈥� said Scotland鈥檚 leader, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon. More than 60 percent of Scots voted to remain in the EU, compared with 48 percent of voters in the UK overall, reflecting Scots鈥� belief that EU membership provides a moderating influence on political life in a UK traditionally dominated by the vastly more numerous English.

Sturgeon emphasized that her administration would aim first to help negotiate a compromise between the British government in London and EU chiefs in Brussels 鈥渢o secure our continuing place in the EU and the single market.鈥� But she said such hopes appeared unlikely to prevail, and made a second Scottish independence referendum 鈥渘ow highly likely.鈥� She said such a vote would have to be held before the United Kingdom formally exited the EU, which could happen as soon as 2018.

Scotland in September 2014 voted 55 percent to 45 percent to reject independence. But leading members of Sturgeon鈥檚 Scottish National Party said they were confident that many voters who rejected independence two years ago were ready to switch allegiance given England鈥檚 decisive embrace of euroskepticism.

鈥淧eople in Scotland are quite simply stunned,鈥� said party lawmaker John Nicolson. He said Britain鈥檚 traditional big three parties鈥攖he Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats鈥攁ll argued two years ago that UK membership was the only way to keep Scotland securely within the EU.

鈥淐learly they鈥檝e misled the Scottish people,鈥� he said.

Next door, Irish nationalists in the long-disputed UK region of Northern Ireland say the British vote has reignited their demands for an all-island referendum to reunite the two parts of Ireland after 95 years of partition. They argue that a British withdrawal from the EU would force authorities in both parts of Ireland to renew customs and security controls on what would become the UK鈥檚 only land border with an EU state, the Republic of Ireland.

Sinn Fein, already in power in Northern Ireland鈥檚 9-year-old unity government and positioned to become the Republic of Ireland鈥檚 top opposition party, insists that the hundreds of thousands of Irish citizens who live in Northern Ireland must be given a chance to vote for their own UK escape.

In Dublin, Irish Prime Minister Enda Kenny convened an emergency Cabinet meeting as Ireland鈥檚 stock market suffered the biggest market falls in Europe, reflecting the fact that Ireland鈥檚 main trading partner is Britain. Kenny emerged saying his government鈥檚 top priority was to minimize damage to Ireland鈥檚 exports-driven economy, not to open old wounds in Northern Ireland.

Kenny and Britain鈥檚 secretary of state for Northern Ireland, Theresa Villiers, agreed that Northern Ireland鈥檚 US-brokered 1998 peace accord contained a provision for staging an all-Ireland vote on reunification in event of popular demand. But both asserted that decades of opinion polling and election results had demonstrated that such a demand was too weak to merit a vote anytime soon.

Kenny said his government would support an Irish unity referendum only if analysts could document 鈥渁 serious movement of a majority of people to a situation where they would want to join the republic. There is no such evidence.鈥�

鈥淭here are much more serious issues to deal with in the medium term,鈥� he said, citing the need to protect Ireland鈥檚 decades-old agreement to maintain special travel and trade relations with Britain, an agreement that predates both nations鈥� 1973 entry to the then-European Economic Community. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 where our focus is.鈥�

And Villiers, who joined Conservative Party rebels in opposing Prime Minister David Cameron鈥檚 push to remain in the EU, called a potential Irish referendum 鈥渁 divisive distraction.鈥� She noted that 鈥渞emain鈥� won with just 56 percent of the vote in Northern Ireland, the biggest per-capita recipient of EU aid in the UK

Left unmentioned was the ever-present sectarian rivalry of Northern Ireland, where a decade of delicately balanced peace has followed three decades of bloodshed that left nearly 3,700 dead. While Sinn Fein led the Catholic minority in seeking to remain in the EU, the top Protestant-backed party campaigned to reject it. As a result, Catholic areas staunchly backed 鈥渞emain,鈥� Protestant areas 鈥渓eave.鈥�

Sinn Fein usually is an EU critic, but this time it backed the 鈥渞emain鈥� campaign because of the risk that Ireland鈥檚 nearly invisible border could become a daily economic, social and security obstacle again. Sinn Fein鈥檚 overarching goal is to overturn the 1921 division of the island, when Irish rebels in the south fought a successful war of independence from the UK but pro-British Protestants anchored in industrial Belfast received a new northern state that remained within the UK

Martin McGuinness, the former Irish Republican Army commander who is Sinn Fein鈥檚 co-leader of the Northern Ireland government, said Irish nationalists in the north鈥攔epresenting more than 40 percent of the population鈥攚ould demand a chance to test public support for Irish unity versus continued UK membership.

McGuinness said the prospect of reintroducing security checks along Northern Ireland鈥檚 meandering 310-mile (500-kilometer) border, barely a decade after the outlawed IRA renounced violence and British security forces were withdrawn from border forts, should be avoided at all costs.

鈥淎nybody who doesn鈥檛 think this is big stuff needs to get their head around it. This is huge for us,鈥� McGuinness said. 鈥淚 do have great concerns about the future.鈥�

In Scotland, high-profile opponents of independence forecast that Cameron鈥檚 backfiring referendum would end in the UK鈥檚 own fracture.

鈥淪cotland will seek independence now,鈥� said 鈥淗arry Potter鈥� author J.K. Rowling, who donated 1 million pounds to anti-independence campaigners two years ago.

鈥淐ameron鈥檚 legacy will be breaking up two unions,鈥� she said in a tweet. 鈥淣either needed to happen.鈥�

RELATED VIDEOS