In this July 1, 2016, photo, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump points to supporters during the opening session of the Western Conservative Summit in Denver. Trump and the GOP are on track to defeat a move by insurgents to head off his nomination at this month鈥檚 Republican National Convention. Far from giving up, the dump Trump forces are continuing to seek new supporters and are spending money to run ads, hire staff and set up office space near the GOP convention site in Cleveland to try upending the party鈥檚 presumptive presidential nominee. AP
WASHINGTON 鈥� A diverse Republican band of Donald Trump haters, conservatives and other rebels have set their sights on derailing the billionaire鈥檚 march to their party鈥檚 presidential nomination.
They鈥檙e seeking new supporters, spending money on TV ads, hiring staff and even setting up office space near the Cleveland arena where the party gathers later this month for its national convention.
Despite their ongoing effort, Trump is moving steadily toward nailing down the nomination. Here鈥檚 why it will be hard for the dissidents to prevail:
The establishment
While many top Republicans have criticized Trump and announced they won鈥檛 go to Cleveland, the party hierarchy has largely been lining up behind his drive for the nomination, despite his divisive statements and unruliness as a candidate.
Their argument: Whatever Trump鈥檚 faults, how do you take the nomination away from the guy who won 13.4 million votes in GOP primaries and caucuses, far more than his opponents? And besides, who鈥檚 the alternative candidate?
Along with staff from Trump鈥檚 still small campaign, members of the Republican National Committee, state GOP leaders and others have formed a team of around 150 鈥渨hips鈥� who are contacting convention delegates and cajoling them, though perhaps not always gently.
On the 112-member convention rules committee, a likely battleground for efforts to free the delegates, around a third are from the 168-member GOP national committee and most will loyally back Trump in rules fights.
There are exceptions. Also on that rules committee is Colorado delegate Kendal Unruh, a leader of the fight to let delegates to vote their 鈥渃onscience,鈥� and North Dakota RNC member Curly Haugland, who has long insisted that even under current rules, delegates are free to back anyone.
Many RNC members say the rebels will lose overwhelmingly in committee votes.
The numbers
鈥� are stacked against the insurgents. Trump triumphed in the vast majority of this year鈥檚 primaries and caucuses, giving him 1,542 delegates, according to The Associated Press. That鈥檚 well above the 1,237 needed to clinch the nomination.
Now, it鈥檚 true those delegates can vote however they wish during convention battles to change the rules, so delegates pledged to a candidate could back anyone they want. And you can count on such defections, because some delegates representing Trump actually prefer Texas Sen. Ted Cruz or others.
But Trump still has a big numerical advantage.
According to an informal count by one party insider, Trump can rely on a solid 900 delegates, compared to a combined 650 for Trump opponents plus delegates backing Cruz or other candidates.
That leaves over 900 remaining delegates. Trump would need only about a third of them to prevail. And don鈥檛 forget, many delegates are party regulars inclined to want a gathering that鈥檚 peaceful, not a GOP civil war on prime time TV.
The anti-Trump forces have said they have more than 400 delegate supporters.
READ: In need of help, Trump finds few willing to work for him
Counter moves
Unruh says she has enough votes on the rules committee to allow the full convention to vote on her proposal to let delegates vote their 鈥渃onscience鈥� and abandon the candidates they are supposed to support. She needs just 28 votes for that to happen. Her opponents say she鈥檇 lose in full convention anyway, but are countering with their own amendments.
An RNC member from Oregon, Solomon Yue, is proposing that any rules changes take effect only after this month鈥檚 convention, to 鈥渢ake the politics out of鈥� the rules debate.
Arizona RNC member Bruce Ash is offering language aimed at ensuring that delegates remain bound to their candidates.
Another tactic party officials are discussing: using their muscle to prevent any rules changes, period. They argue the current rules already mean delegates must stay with their candidates.
Rebels鈥� leverage
They may be outnumbered, but the dump Trumpers have cards they could try playing to be disruptive.
Under current rules, a sympathetic delegate can slow down roll calls by demanding that their state delegation chairman recount the tally. They could force roll calls on minor matters that would usually pass quickly by voice vote, and lodge other time-consuming procedural challenges.
There鈥檚 a limit to that strategy.
The convention鈥檚 presiding officer, which at times will be House Speaker Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, the convention chairman, doesn鈥檛 always have to recognize delegates seeking recognition. And if the dissenters try the same tactic repeatedly, he or she can rule their moves dilatory and move on.
Another dissidents鈥� hope 鈥� what if Trump鈥檚 poll numbers get really, really bad?
鈥淲hat is the Republican Party鈥檚 tipping point?鈥� asked Steve Lonegan, a leader of Courageous Conservatives, which is backing the rebellion by raising money for ads and other expenses. 鈥淚s it down 10 points, 12 points, 20 points?鈥�
In a conference call among dump Trump supporters Tuesday evening, conservative writer David French congratulated participants for trying to defeat 鈥渁n evil man.鈥� And conservative commentator William Kristol told the group, 鈥淲in or lose, I think this is an important moment鈥� toward establishing 鈥渢he principle that the delegates have the right to vote as they see fit.鈥�
READ: Trump: 鈥業t would be helpful鈥� if Republicans would help him