COMPOSITE IMAGE BY JEROME CRISTOBAL FROM INQ STOCK PHOTOS
(Second of two parts)
MANILA, Philippines鈥擜s world ocean surface temperature hit a new record-high, scientists warned it could lead to higher risks of extreme weather. In the Philippines, past disasters show early signs of ocean warming鈥檚 devastating impact.
Preliminary data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) showed that the average temperature of the world鈥檚 ocean surface has been 21.1掳C since the start of April this year.
It was a new record-high and has surpassed the previous high ocean surface temperature of 21掳C recorded in 2016. Scientists warned that increasing ocean temperatures could cause marine heatwaves and a higher risk of extreme weather.
READ: World ocean surface temperature reaches new record high
The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) also stressed that rising ocean surface temperature could cause drought, flooding, sea level rise, and loss of sea ice. The phenomenon could have devastating impact on the world鈥檚 marine species and ecosystem鈥攁s well as humans.
GRAPHIC: Ed Lustan
Latest data and study findings in past years have shown the impact of ocean warming on the Philippines.
However, what could be the most destructive manifestation of climate change in the country鈥攍inked to rising sea surface temperature鈥攖ook place in 2013, claiming thousands of lives, destroying billions of pesos worth of infrastructure and livelihood of millions of Filipinos.
What went before: Typhoon Yolanda
On November 8, 2013, Super Typhoon Yolanda (international name: Haiyan) struck the Philippines and was considered as among the country鈥檚 worst-ever natural disasters.
In Eastern Visayas, where Yolanda caused massive destruction, around 1.14 million houses were damaged, leaving more than a million families, or 5.13 million individuals, homeless.
The International Labor Organization (ILO) reported that out of more than 14.2 million people affected by Yolanda, 5.9 million were workers whose livelihoods were destroyed. At least 2.6 million of them were 鈥渁lready in vulnerable employment and living at or near the poverty line before the typhoon.鈥�
The total cost of damage was placed at P95.5 billion. Worst, 6,340 people died and 1,771 went missing and feared dead.
While it was no surprise that a strong typhoon like Yolanda will hit the Philippines, most, if not all survivors shared a grim sentiment鈥斺�渘o one was ready for Yolanda.鈥�
An average of 20 tropical cyclones enter the Philippines, which had been listed as among the world鈥檚 most disaster-prone countries.
Ocean warming鈥檚 relation to Yolanda
Previous studies have projected that an increase in ocean surface temperature鈥攁s a result of global warming鈥攃ould lead to increases in hurricane frequency, intensity, and destructiveness.
A published in the Journal of Environmental Science and Management tested the projection by gaining an insight into the important role and influence of high sea surface temperature (SST)鈥攖hat may be related to global warming鈥攐n the 鈥渦nusual strength鈥� of Super Typhoon Yolanda.
The scientists who conducted the study found that the strongest environmental factor that might have caused the unusual strength of Yolanda was the SST in the Warm Pool and Western Pacific regions鈥攂oth of which are close to where the Philippines is located.
GRAPHIC: Ed Lustan
They found that the SST is 鈥渨ell-correlated鈥� with the wind strength of historically strong typhoons that hit the country鈥攊ncluding Yolanda. The study stressed that the average SST in November 2013 in both Warm Pool and Western Pacific regions was at its highest.
鈥淸The] study indicates that in 2013 the strongest environmental signal that may be associated with the typhoon is the SST in the Warm Pool and Western Pacific regions,鈥� the scientists stressed.
鈥淭he most remarkable result is that the typhoon event coincided with the record-high monthly average SST during the 1981 to 2014 study period over the Warm Pool Region,鈥� it said.
鈥淭he highest monthly SST over the Warm Pool Region occurred in November 2013 while the 4th highest SST observed in the region during the same period occurred in October 2013,鈥� it explained.
With the increasing trend in ocean surface temperature鈥�0.20潞C per decade in the Warm Pool region and even higher at 0.23潞C per decade in the West Pacific region鈥攖he scientists likewise suggest that extremely destructive typhoons like Haiyan could be the new normal in the future.
READ: More powerful typhoons looming due to climate change, says wind dynamics expert
Record-high temp impact on PH
But what does the new 鈥渉eaded off the charts鈥� ocean surface temperature mean for the Philippines?
For Timothy James Cipriano, senior lecturer at the Department of Geography of UP Diliman and assistant professor of geography at the Philippine Normal University (PNU), the record-high ocean surface temperature could cause a string of events that would impact both humans and the country鈥檚 marine ecosystem.
鈥淭he rise in ocean temperatures is brought by the ability of the ocean to absorb most of the excess heat from greenhouse gas emissions,鈥� he told .
鈥淚n the Philippine context, rising ocean temperatures would increase the possibility of loss of breeding grounds for marine life鈥攁long with human activities such as reclamation,鈥� said Cipriano, a geographer and professor whose research focuses on hazards and disasters.
GRAPHIC: Ed Lustan
鈥淭his has an implication in our food security since we get our food source from the marine ecosystem that we have such as fish, shrimp,鈥� he added.
The high ocean surface temperature, Cipriano said, could also increase the vulnerability of marine species to diseases鈥攚hich, in turn, could impact the livelihood of fisherfolk in the country.
READ: When those who feed the nation are the poorest: Farmers, fisherfolk in deepest poverty pit
A University of Utah College of Law research paper written in 2019 detailed that among the diseases that could affect marine species鈥攃aused by ocean warming鈥攁re several species of the Vibrio bacteria, including those that can cause human disease.
The study also noted that ocean warming, caused by climate change, could lead to an increase in harmful algal blooms (HABs)鈥攁lso known as red tide鈥攚hich produces harmful effects on people, fish, shellfish, marine mammals, and birds.
READ: FAO warning: Climate change poisons food
More extreme weather events, hazards
Cipriano stressed that there is a high probability of more extreme weather events in the future as a result of the new record-high ocean surface temperature.
鈥淕iven that the Philippines is prone to many hazards (we are a multi-hazard country) that are compounding or cascading, rising ocean temperatures could exacerbate the impacts of many hazards that are associated with extreme weather events,鈥� he said.
READ: Framing disaster response differently: It鈥檚 not just a 鈥榦ne-off鈥� event
鈥淩ising sea temperatures could also have an impact on vegetation, as well as corals and mangroves that naturally protect coastal communities from sea level rise,鈥� he added.
Economic losses related to ocean warming, he said, will become more apparent. According to IUCN, economic losses could run from tens to hundreds of millions of dollars.
What鈥檚 next?
The various disastrous impacts of ocean warming, Cipriano described, are 鈥渋rreversible if there is no paradigm shift in terms of climate policy.鈥�
IUCN said several adaptive and precautionary measures could still protect ocean ecosystems and minimize the impact of ocean warming on humans.
These include limiting greenhouse gas emissions, protecting and restoring marine and coastal ecosystems, improving human adaptation, and strengthening scientific research that helps measure and monitor ocean warming and its effects.